By now, the story of the index-based commodity funds has been in the market for weeks and, every so often, looks like old news. This week, the upward momentum came to an end and many markets, from crude oil to soybeans to hogs, took a breather.

Underlying fundamentals expressed themselves in a few markets, including corn. The corn supply/demand situation continues to be bleak. More analysts, including the US attaché in China, have increased the projections for corn exports from China to 6 million metric tons (mmt), up from 4 mmt. The USDA continues to reduce exports on the monthly supply/demand reports. Low prices do not seem to have done the job of increasing export demand. Export shipments could end up less than last year's numbers, in spite of increased supplies.

This afternoon's Hogs and Pigs report showed all hogs and pigs at 101%, kept for breeding at 100% and kept for marketing at 101%. The long term outlook does not show any expansion, with farrowing intentions for March through May at 100% and June through August at 99%. The USDA may be close on its estimate of feed use with these numbers. However, for the coming year, it may be hard to plug in increases in feed use.

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Several reports will also provide direction in the coming week. Many market participants will pay attention to the estimates and opinions before the important March 31st reports.

The Grain Stocks report will also help with estimates of corn feed use and the Prospective Plantings report will allow traders to see just how popular corn growing is during 2005. With no huge jumps in domestic demand forecasted, more corn acres will more easily translate into increased carryout.

The soybean market is concerned about these reports next Thursday, too. There is an upcoming shift from interest in the Brazilian crop to interest in the upcoming US crop. The pace of demand will be important, too, although comparisons to last year's severe rationing situation will be difficult to make.

The soybean market will just have a whole new dynamic in the 2005 growing year, with presumably fewer acres and the day to day impact of soybean rust on the market. Volatility could be at an all time high.