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Selling your grain on the top range of the market is an annual goal for most. I encourage producers to keep their perspective, however, of where the top range is in the current market. I have had far too many conversations with producers who lament, in hindsight, that they did not sell enough grain when prices were high.
They were holding out for a clear sign, and in the process, lost perspective of the value range. It goes back to the old adage of not being able to see the forest through the trees.
Will the market go higher or lower from here? Tell me if there will be an early frost, and I'll be able to tell you exactly where this market will go. My point is that as a producer, you will not be able to accurately predict the weather. So it is imperative to take a step back and historically look at the rare instances when prices are extremely high, and conversely, when prices are extremely low.
When you do this, you will know where the peaks and valleys are, and from there, it becomes clearer where VALUE lies. You will see where prices are offering a good value overall. Then you can sell value, even if you do not hit the top of the market.
In fact, I would encourage you to print the (below) continuous monthly corn and soybean charts and post them where you will see them daily. Then, when the market does work higher or lower, you'll have a sense of where, historically, the current price is offering relational value.
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