Official USDA soybean rust forecast Web portal, forecast site go live
 
Marilyn Cummins
StopSoybeanRust.com Editor
 
3/15/2005, 9:00 AM CST
 
 

The new and eagerly awaited USDA Web portal for Asian soybean rust, which includes the agency's new national monitoring and forecasting system, went live for the first time during the wee hours of Tuesday morning. The new site, called "Soybean Rust Homepage," (SBR) provided by USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is located at www.usda.gov/soybeanrust.

This new site, described in its introduction as a "one-stop resource for soybean rust," links to what will become the second national rust forecasting site on the Web. Titled "USDA Public Soybean Rust Website," the site opens in a separate browser window from the SBR home page. The sites have not yet been announced publicly by USDA, but that announcement is expected as early as tomorrow.

The first national forecast site, launched in late February, was the Soybean Rust Forecast Center from the North American Plant Disease Forecast Center. You can link to it here: http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/pp/soybeanrust/index.php

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From the soybean rust home page, visitors can download the APHIS soybean rust identification card PDF; search the site and all of USDA; link to selected existing USDA sites or articles about rust, fungicides and crop insurance; and link to the soybean rust information center of the Plant Management Network. (You can get there by clicking on the "American Phytopathological Society" text link).

Zooming in on rust locations, recommendations and predictions

The USDA forecasting site will have three "zoomable" national maps: Observations;, Disease Management; and Scouting. Clicking on one of the three maps moves it into the center viewing zone of the site.

The observation map shows where soybean rust is being confirmed, with the status of affected counties coded by color: red for scouted, confirmed; yellow for scouted, suspected; and green for scouted, not found.

As rust is found, the disease management map will provide treatment recommendations county by county. They will be indicated by color as well. Red will indicate curative treatments are warranted while blue will indicate the need for preventative treatments.

One designated soybean specialist from each of about 30 participating states will control the information on that state's map, reviewing forecasts and recommendations indicated by background models of the predictive system. The scouting map will indicate where to be looking for rust when, based on confirmed locations and forecasts of rust movement.

Importantly, USDA's forecasts and those from the NCSU forecast site will be made using two different methodologies. The USDA is using new soybean rust predictive systems developed in partnership with university and private entities.

From big picture to local view

Users of the new site can go from the national view to a particular rust site or county by using a "zoom tool" they can select from above the map in use.

At the moment, the only map with a coded area is the observation map, and the only coded county is Pasco County, Florida, where soybean rust was confirmed on overwintering kudzu on Feb. 23, 2005. The other two maps have a commentary at the bottom that appears when users click on them to bring them to the center panel of the site.

Plans for the USDA forecast site call for reference overlays for the maps that will include roads, crop commodities and county boundaries, according to the new "Information and Reference Guide for Managing Soybean Rust" posted as a news release on the American Seed Trade Society Web site here: http://www.amseed.com/newsDetail.asp?id=111

The American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) guide offers extensive background on the multi-agency federal/state/industry framework for the surveillance, reporting, prediction and management of soybean rust before and during the 2005 growing season.

What about the other forecasting site launched this month?

The first national forecasting site, the Soybean Rust Forecast from the NAPDFC, housed at North Carolina State University, began its Monday/Wednesday/Friday forecasts on Wednesday, March 2, 2005. You can link to that site here: http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/pp/soybeanrust/index.php

Its forecasts are issued in terms of "threat" and "risk" estimates of spore dispersal and rust development for a given area for the next 36 to 48 hours - based on the same aerobiological models used for forecasts of diseases like tobacco blue mold for the past 10 years.

Until last week, the Center site carried instructions and a form for reporting soybean rust outbreaks, so that such reports could become part of its forecasting system throughout the season. However, USDA officials have now asked the scientists who run the Center at NCSU to direct all reports to the USDA site that was, at the time, still under construction.

According to the notice posted on the forecast site March 9, the Center "agreed to pull its own report form" and told visitors that, until further notice, "all new and continuing reports of soybean rust should be submitted via the USDA website at www.sbrusa.net using standard guidelines."

The Center has been working with USDA officials, according to Charles Main, leader of the Center and plant pathology professor emeritus at NCSU, but the NCSU center and USDA will be using two different models to forecast the potential spread of rust. In a short interview Friday, Main told StopSoybeanRust.com he and colleagues have been been studying the two models and comparing their results.

"We won't be competing," Main said. They will both provide forecasts, however.

The NCSU-based Center intends to use the USDA-logged reports of soybean-rust source locations as it continues its mission to post forecasts of the occurrence, transport and risk from soybean rust spores in the atmosphere.

In all likelihood, each state will designate one person to be the official liaison for collecting and forwarding each new rust sighting and the scouting status of counties. This person might be the same soybean specialist who clears disease-management recommendations from the state for the national site, for example. Such officials will need to register and log in to the USDA site to make their reports.


Learn more about soybean rust

StopSoybeanRust.com is a Web site with news, information and resources about Asian soybean rust, created by the Greenbook, Dealer & Applicator magazine and Successful Farming magazine. It is sponsored by Bayer CropScience US. Cooperating partners include the United Soybean Board and the Crop Advisor Institute.

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