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Late winter storms could help a little with drought, says Al Dutcher, University of Nebraska state climatologist. As snow storms avoid the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains this winter, Nebraskans still can hope for some precipitation, he says. Forecasts call for above normal precipitation until about the end of next week, he says. "We're likely to see an uptake in storm activity, but these storms need to drop significant precipitation along the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming," Dutcher said.
March and April are critical because more precipitation falls during those months than the December through February period. In addition, snowfall can be significant given the right conditions, and the snow typically has a significantly higher water equivalency. "We also need timely precipitation for the state's winter wheat crop," Dutcher said. In addition, lack of moisture and high winds across the state have increased the risk of grassfires. "We need moisture to offset these problems," he said. Extreme ridging in the western United States during the last 30 days has been responsible for the region's dry weather. However, the 90-day forecast is showing wetter than normal patterns, Dutcher says. "There are a lot of questions right now," he adds. A dry winter doesn't necessarily make a dry summer more likely. However, there is a slight tendency for a wet spring to be followed by a wet summer. Even if Nebraskans do see a wet spring and summer, drought will continue to be a concern for agriculture, recreation, wildlife and water supplies, Dutcher says. Snow pack levels in the central Rockies have dwindled from near normal conditions in January to less than 85% of normal as of March 14. Even a couple of big snow storms may not bring snowpack levels back up to normal. "Levels have consistently decreased since January, and we're running out of season," he says. "Snowpack levels peak around April 15, so we only have about the next 30 days or so to bring that snowpack back up to normal." In addition, Platte River basin runoff projections are currently pegged at 585,000 acre-feet of water, much of which will be held by Wyoming reservoirs. Some of this water will make its way toward Lake McConaughy, but not enough to offset expected irrigation delivery restrictions. "Lake McConaughy will probably peak somewhere between 32% and 35% of normal," Dutcher says. "If normal to above normal temperatures materialize this growing season, Lake McConaughy will probably be very close to, or at, minimum pool level as we get to the end of this irrigation season." Last year's unseasonably cool summer kept some of that water demand down, and Lake McConaughy levels ended up at the upper end of its spring projections. "Although not impossible, it may be asking a lot to see two consecutive summers with temperatures ranked in the top five coolest on record," Dutcher says. The Platte River is expected to go dry again this summer unless it's an unusually wet season. Much of this will be the result of the Central Nebraska Public Power and Irrigation District conserving Platte River water by halting releases from Lake McConaughy to conserve a limited water resource, Dutcher says. Harlan Reservoir looks to be in worse shape than Lake McConaughy - unless the Republican River Basin has a significantly wet spring, there may not be any deliverable water coming out of that reservoir this summer, he says. Learn more on the IANR drought Web page: http://ianrhome.unl.edu/drought/ Learn how to make the most of dwindling water supplies in a report about an ongoing University of Nebraska irrigation management project in the Republican River Basin here: http://ianrnews.unl.edu/static/0503141.shtml |
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