What's up with soybean prices? Weather concerns, in part, due to lower than expected precipitation amounts across much of the eastern soybean growing region over the Memorial Day weekend, combined with forecasts for mostly dry conditions to continue this week.

Soybean prices have taken a turn sharply higher. At the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, soybean futures ended up 12 1/2 cents at $6.80 1/4 per bushel. November soybeans were up 14 cents at $6.82. The night before, in e-CBOT trade, July soybeans had closed up 14 1/4 cents at $6.82.

The lack of rain currently worrying the markets is just the latest in a string of weather events that have farmers and traders concerned about this year's crops.

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"Warm, dry conditions in early April allowed corn planting to get an early start, particularly in Illinois," University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist Darrel Good noted in his weekly outlook report Tuesday. "Excess precipitation in some areas, along with widespread low temperatures, created some germination problems resulting in some replanting of the crop. In addition, plant populations have been reduced to less-than-optimal levels in some areas.

"Now, dry conditions in large portions of the eastern Corn Belt are raising further concerns about development of the corn crop," he says. "The soybean crop has also suffered some planting and germination problems due to areas of excessive precipitation or abnormally dry conditions. Some areas in central Illinois, for example, have had less than 25% of normal precipitation since March 1."

"Price reaction in the soybean market has been stronger than in the corn market," said Good. "One reason may be the perception that corn plantings exceeded March intentions and that soybean acreage fell short of intentions."

We won't know how that scenario plays out until USDA releases its annual Acreage report at the end of June.

Good says a combination of strong demand and crop concerns has increased the speculative interest in the soybean market. But, he notes, "It is still very early in the growing season so that prices can be expected to remain volatile."

Meantime, traders reportedly expected today's Crop Progress report to show a 2-4 percentage point decline in crop ratings. But that didn't materialize - corn crop condition ratings were down just one point in the excellent category. Now 62% of the crop is rated good or excellent.

Soybean planting was expected to race ahead to 85-88% of completion. That didn't materialize either - USDA said this afternoon that 81% of the crop is planted nationally. While planting isn't speeding along as quickly as analysts expected, the progress is still ten percentage points ahead of the five-year average pace and five points ahead of last year at this date. Half the crop is emerged, five percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

What's in store for crop weather moving ahead? Freese-Notis weather says we will start the meteorological summer, which starts Wednesday and runs through August, with much of the eastern Corn Belt showing at least "abnormally dry" soil moisture conditions, though a sizable part of Illinois and smaller parts of Indiana and Michigan are in the "moderate" category.

Shorter term, Tuesday morning brought rain to the Plains and the far western Corn Belt. That rain will move east, to the western part of Iowa, over the next day or so, Freese-Notis predicted Tuesday in weather commentary for Agriculture Online. Another weather system will start to impact the western Corn Belt on Friday or Saturday and will give the dry areas of the eastern Corn Belt their next chance for rainfall Sunday, Freese-Notis says, adding that there are some real hopes this could be just the start of rainfall chances that continue in the dry areas throughout the first half of next week.

National Weather Service 6-10 day maps issued today predict above normal temperatures in the eastern part of the country and below normal temps in the West for next week. Precipitation is expected to be above normal for the major crop growing regions during that period as well.

Good points out that weather markets typically have resulted in high prices during the growing season, generally followed by much lower prices after harvest.

"The timing of the growing season price peak, however, has varied and is difficult to predict precisely because it is weather-determined. The challenge is to take advantage of the period of high prices by timing the sales of both old crop inventories and expected production," he says.

"For old crop inventory, a naive strategy of metering out sales during this period of weather uncertainty with balloon sales if and when the weather turns more favorable could be followed. New crop sales are a bit more problematic because of production uncertainty, but the same naive strategy as for old crop is not without merit.

"The actual strategy might depend on the type of crop or revenue insurance in place and the willingness to use options to manage both production and price risk."

Highlights from this week's Crop Progress report from USDA:

• Corn: Planting is complete. Emergence for the crop is at 85%. That is five points ahead of the five-year average for development, but four points behind last year at this date. Corn condition ratings were down by one point in the excellent category, which means now 62% of the crop is rated good or excellent. Last year at this time 68% rated that well.

• Soybeans: Planting is 81% complete nationally. Illinois growers have just 3% of the crop left to plant. Half of the crop is emerged nationally, five points ahead of the season-average pace for development but three points behind last year at this date.

• Winter wheat: The crop is heading on 81% of planted acres nationally, dead even with the five-year average pace for development, and five points behind last year at this date. All of the crop is heading in Oklahoma, Arkansas, California and 99% of the crop is heading in Kansas. Condition ratings for the winter wheat crop took another tumble, falling four percentage points in the good category. That leaves less than half of the crop (48%) in the good to excellent range. Last week 52% rated that well.

• Spring wheat: Planting is within three points of completion. Two points ahead of last year's progress for this date and three points ahead of the five-year average. Growers in South Dakota and Washington have finished planting and Minnesota and Montana are within two points of completion. As of Sunday, 88% of the crop had emerged. That is two points ahead of last year and ten points ahead of the five-year average. Condition ratings are strong, with 77% of the crop rated good or excellent. That's up from 74% last week and 63% last year at this date.

• Cotton: Planting is 83% complete. Growers in Missouri and California had finished planting as of Sunday. Condition ratings were lower this week than last. Now 60% of the crop is rated good or excellent, compared with 64% last week.

• Rice: Planting is in the home stretch with 97% of the crop in the ground. That is exactly on par with last year at this date and with the five-year average for planting progress. Planting is complete in Missouri and Texas. Eighty-six percent of the crop is emerged. Condition ratings have 55% of the crop rated good to excellent, compared with 58% last week.

• Peanuts: Planting is complete on 83% of acres. That is five percentage points behind last year at this date and three points behind the season-average pace. Condition ratings, the first of the year, have 65% of the crop rated good and 6% excellent.