After the recent hot, dry spell, analysts were expecting to see a significant drop in corn and soybean crop ratings for the eastern Corn Belt in today's Crop Progress report from USDA. Ratings were lower, particularly for Illinois and Indiana.

The report shows that nationally, 65% of corn in the good and excellent categories, a drop of three percentage points from last week's report. Soybean conditions were down four percentage points in the top two categories, leaving 59% of the crop rated good or excellent.

Crop ratings in Illinois for corn and soybeans took a tumble. Compared with last week's ratings, corn is down 16 points in the good and excellent categories and soybeans are down 13%. That leaves just 33% of the soybean crop and 32% of corn in the top two categories for the state.

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Neighboring Indiana also saw a dramatic drop in condition ratings - 10 points in the top two condition categories for corn and 12 points for beans - compared with the week earlier ratings.

Iowa's crops, however, are faring well with only a 1-point reduction in the excellent category for corn, and a 3-point improvement for soybeans. Now 77% of corn and 74% of beans rated good or excellent in the state.

Missouri's soybean crop is rated 5% excellent, and 39% good. Despite recent concerns about dry weather, Ohio soybeans seem to be holding on. USDA has 11% of that state's crop rated excellent and 51% rated good. In Iowa, which has seen decent rains lately, 18% of the soybean crop is rated excellent and 56% good.

Iowa's corn is rated 67% good or excellent this week. In Ohio, 54% of the crop is rated good or excellent. Missouri's corn crop is rated 54% good or excellent.

Soybeans are blooming on 6% of intended acres nationwide. That's one point ahead of the five-year average for development and one point behind last year at this date. Emergence is complete on 96% of acres.

Corn is throwing silk on 4% of intended acres nationwide. That is one point behind the five-year average pace for development, and five points behind last year at this date.

Ahead of the report, soybean futures were limit-down at the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday in part because of an improved weather outlook for dry crops in the central Midwest. July soybeans closed at $6.94 1/2 per bushel, November soybeans were also limit-down at $7.15 3/4 per bushel.

CBOT corn futures closed lower as well with September corn down 10 3/4 cents at $2.31 1/4, and December corn down 11 1/4 cents at $2.41 1/2 per bushel at the close.

Winter wheat crop conditions hold steady as harvest gains speed

The winter wheat harvest is ahead of the season-average pace and moving north, according to this week's crop report. The situation is pressuring prices. September wheat closed down 9 ¾ cents Monday, at $3.40 ½ per bushel. That's the lowest price in ten days.

USDA's progress report shows harvest is zooming along in Kansas. Growers there had 66% of the crop harvested as of Sunday, while they had just 10% in a week earlier. Progress is now one point ahead of last year and eight points ahead of the five-year average harvest pace. Oklahoma growers have 90% of the crop harvested, and Texas growers have 71% in.

In Nebraska, 5% of the crop is harvested, in Missouri 70% and Illinois 71%.

Crop conditions show 49% of the winter wheat crop is rated good or excellent, down a point from last week, but up from 43% last year at this date.

Spring wheat is heading on 30% of intended acres, slightly ahead of the usual pace, mainly due to early development in Washington state and Montana. Conditions for the spring wheat crop fell 2 points in the excellent category compared with last week. That means now 77% of the crop rates good or excellent - up from 68% a year ago.

Weather outlook for the coming week:

National Weather Service 6-10 day outlook maps issued today show patches of drier than normal weather over the eastern Corn Belt and south central Plains states and normal to above normal temperatures throughout much of the US. Below normal temperatures are seen in for Florida and nearby coastal areas, as well as in the Northwest.

In Weather Market Commentary for Agriculture Online Monday morning, Freese-Notis Weather noted weekend weather was very stressful on crops in the dry areas of the eastern Corn Belt, as 90-95 degree temperatures were common (extremes up to 98 or even 99 degrees) and nothing more than isolated thunderstorms were recorded.

"If anything, it was a case of too much rain for a fairly sizable part of the northwestern Corn Belt, as I can confirm more than five inches of rain for Waterloo, more than eight inches of rain for Fort Dodge, and radar estimates more than a foot of rain to the west of Fort Dodge for the 48 hour period ending on Sunday morning," a meteorologist for the company said.

"That same area is seeing thunderstorm activity again this morning and looks to be the focal point of rainfall over the next 24 hours (with additional locally heavy amounts possible). Meanwhile, other than isolated late afternoon thunderstorms I am not impressed with rainfall chances in the driest areas of the Midwest through late Wednesday, and temperatures will stay well up into the 90s during that period."

Freese-Notis predicts a cold front will move through the Midwest Thursday, providing temperature and humidity relief to the region heading into the July 4th weekend.

Meantime other weather sources predict the eastern Midwest will see rainfall of up to 1 1/2 inches Wednesday to Thursday, with Indiana and Ohio likely to benefit the most. Illinois could also see showers, if not, the next chance for rain moves into that state early next week.

Drill down to your weather forecast for the coming week: