In previous columns, I have written about my three favorite market analysis methods: the study of price, the study of time, and the study of motion (with tools like the Elliott Wave and the Relative Strength Index). I think the study of time is the most re
A review of the last 45 years projects major lows in 2015 or 2016.
To create a marketing plan, you’ll need to zero in and examine five key areas: cost of production, storage position, local basis, marketing team, and schedule.
This fall, markets responded to record corn and soybean crops in the U.S. That response was cash corn and soybean prices falling to the lowest level since 2009. When cash corn drops below $3 per bushel, it is essential that you make every penny you can. Th
Comparing global gold and grain prices.
Make the right merchandising decisions this fall; storage can pay big dividends this year.
The extreme price moves the last two years have given me two textbook examples of how my three-step risk-management plan works. I learned a lot about margin calls and rolling up put options in 2012. In 2013, the hedges worked great, and the puts helped protect income.
In both years -- 2012 was the year of the a huge bull market in grain prices; 2013 was the year of the huge bear market when grain prices collapsed -- my three-step risk-management plan worked to protect my corn and soybean income.
When the corn market dropped under $4.20, the phone rang at least twice per week -- sometimes daily -- with a farmer who said, “I read on the Internet that corn futures would drop below $3.00 per bushel by the fall of 2014.” The professionals seemed to agree; a lot of the conventional supply/demand economists are getting really bearish. It's almost been like a contest to see who can project the lowest price.
I don't agree.
Be realistic in your price prospects for 2014.
Watch these charts to glean trends when it comes to buying hedges or puts.