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RCM Grains Morning Wire 06/18/13

06/18/2013 @ 1:02pm

COMMODITIES | AGRICULTURE

RCM Grains Morning Wire

 

CN +1/2          SN +5 ¼             WN +4            KWN +5 ¾            MWN +3 ¾  

     HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets higher for most of the night before corn went slightly negative at the end of the overnight session.
  • Crop progress yesterday showed bean planting below expectations, which helped to give the market a boost overnight.
  • Corn ratings near expectations with 64% g/e.
  • Spring wheat ratings jumped to 68% g/e.
  • Taiwan Sugar Corp. cancelled a tender to import 12k US beans and 23k US corn as they expect a drop in prices.
  • Russia sold 34.2 tmt of intervention grain today.
  • Dec. corn made a decent reversal on the charts Monday, trading to a new low for the recent move lower and closing higher.  If a pull-back today finds buyers, look for a move to the upper end of the range.
  • Cash corn and beans trading well above futures in most areas.
  • USDA announced 240 tmt of beans sold to China for 2013/14 on the daily report.

WEATHER

  • Only spotty showers expected across the Midwest for the next few days.
  • Rains start in the NW Midwest on Thursday and work east through Saturday.
  • The 6-10 and 11-15 periods are dry for most of the Midwest with normal to above normal temperatures setting in.

      OUTLOOK

  • New crop corn is likely still range bound, but it did just bounce off support, and I look for some follow-through to at least near the upper end of the trading range.
  • Old-crop corn is trying to break out of its recent range, posting a multi-month high close yesterday and cash markets leading the way.
  • China appears willing to buy new-crop beans when they drop below $13. Old-crop beans trading at a discount to cash makes me think that market is not done yet either.
  • Wheat bounced off support yesterday. In the near-term, I think wheat has a hard time outpacing corn, but longer term, the corn/wheat spreads should start seeing wheat put more of a premium in to corn.

      OPENING CALLS  

  • Corn mixed, beans 5-10 higher, and wheat 3-5 higher.

 

Call if you have any questions.  312-870-1503

 

Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone

 

This newsletter and the opinions contained herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations and are not tailored to any specific’s investor’s needs or investment goals.  You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice.  Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

 

Doug Bergman

Vice President-

Agricultural Derivatives

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621 S Plymouth, Ct FL 1

Chicago, IL  60605

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