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RCM Grains Wire 7.1.13

Doug Bergman 07/01/2013 @ 11:16am Originally from a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Doug Bergman began his brokerage career at Iowa Grain Company before moving on to a broker/analyst role at MF Global. Doug currently runs the agricultural trading desk at RCM Asset Management, providing trading and hedging solutions to commercial grain and livestock customers as well as speculative traders. Doug provides his customers with timely research and analysis, producing three daily research reports. Doug still takes an active role in the family farm.

COMMODITIES | AGRICULTURE

RCM Grains Morning Wire

 

CN -2¼      CZ -5       SQ +21        SX +5       WU +2 ¼      KWU +4 ½     MWU +2  

     HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed overnight with old-crop beans seeing big gains and corn adding to the losses seen Friday.
  • The biggest surprise Friday was the corn acreage number, which increased from March 30.  With the bigger corn acres, there is room for yield to come down, PP acres to drop harvested acres, and still have plenty of corn for next year.
  • The bean acre number was actually on the supportive side, coming in toward the lower end of expectations.  With PP acres likely to drop that number, a lower yield will leave things tight again on the bean balance sheet for next year.
  • The stocks numbers were on the supportive side across the board.  Old-crop beans have reacted accordingly.
  • The larger number of corn acres in the south with TX corn acres up 300,000 from March, will increase the amount of new-crop corn that can make it into the old-crop supply to help bridge the gap until corn harvest starts in the heart of the Corn Belt.
  • Wheat traded to multimonth lows overnight before rebounding and is trading with a small gain.
  • South Korea’s Nofi announced a corn tender.
  • Crop progress out this afternoon with corn and bean ratings expected to jump 3% to 4% in the good to excellent category.
  • Cash corn firmed after Friday’s drop in futures. Most bids are off the September, but buyers in the Corn Belt are paying 1.30 to 1.50 over across Nebraska, Iowa, and into Illinois. Cash beans also strong with most bidding well 1.00+ over the August.
  • Commitment of Traders on Friday showed little.
  • Friday’s Hog and Pig report showed 100% of last year (average guess 100.5%), which shouldn’t be a major market mover.

WEATHER

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