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RCM Grains Wire 7.9.13

Doug Bergman 07/09/2013 @ 11:04am Originally from a grain and livestock farm in central Illinois, Doug Bergman began his brokerage career at Iowa Grain Company before moving on to a broker/analyst role at MF Global. Doug currently runs the agricultural trading desk at RCM Asset Management, providing trading and hedging solutions to commercial grain and livestock customers as well as speculative traders. Doug provides his customers with timely research and analysis, producing three daily research reports. Doug still takes an active role in the family farm.

7/9/2013, 8:00 CST

COMMODITIES | AGRICULTURE

RCM Grains Morning Wire

 

CU +11 ½     CZ +10 ½     SQ +20 ½      SX +23      WU +14     KWU +13     MWU +10 ¾     

     HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets moving higher overnight led by strength in corn and beans as some weather concerns emerge and out of position managed funds support.
  • Commitment of traders out yesterday afternoon showed a surprisingly large amount of fund selling of corn, beans, and wheat.
  • Funds are now net short 20k corn after selling 90k contracts in a week.
  • No major surprises on the crop progress report with corn ratings up 1% and beans unchanged in the g/e category.
  • Much of weather concern is in Southwest portion of corn-belt where many of the “new” acres showed up on the acreage report.
  • Taiwan bought 60 tmt of Brazil corn.
  • Japan is tendering for 50 tmt of US, Australia, or Canada wheat.
  • Cash bean markets still trading at strong levels, but some areas did see bids back off yesterday.  Corn bids generally stronger yesterday.
  • Ukraine grain harvest is double the amount that had been harvested by this time last year.
  • Russian farm minister left his grain harvest estimate at 95mmt, but said that may come down.
  • Nov. beans put in a key reversal on the charts Monday and have seen good follow through buying so far today.
  • Key numbers on Thursday’s report will be world wheat production and world wheat import/exports as China has been an active buyer lately.  No major changes to the corn/bean balance sheets are likely to show up on the July report as the USDA typically waits until August when more is known about production prospects.

WEATHER

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