The forecast for spring planting in the U.S. has become clearer in recent days, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their March El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) discussion this past Thursday. The full diagnostic discussion can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html 

The Latest La Nina Outlook - - The current La Nina in the Pacific Ocean has weakened as expected throughout the month of February and should enter into ENSO-neutral (meaning neither La Nina or El Nino is present) conditions by June 2011. Computer models have trended very well with the observed ocean temperatures in the Pacific and have allowed NOAA to become increasingly confident in the forecast, at least into June.

Weather For Spring Planting - - Although La Nina is in the latter stages of its cycle, it will still influence weather patterns in the U.S. for the upcoming spring. Precipitation and temperature trends are indicated in the two maps below.


ABOVE: Percent chance of having above normal temperatures (orange shaded areas) or below average temperatures (blue shaded areas) averaged over March, April, and May. Source: NOAA

BELOW: Percent chance of having above normal precipitation (green shaded areas) or below normal precipitation (brown shaded areas) averaged over March, April, and May. Source: NOAA


An enhanced chance of below average precipitation and above normal temperatures exists across much of the southern United States, areas that are already struggling with drought. The Pacific Northwest across the northern tier of states to Wisconsin has an enhanced probability of below normal temperatures.

The Take Home Message - - There are two main points to take away from this. The first is if this forecast holds true, spring planting should begin on-time or even early in most areas of the U.S. The exception would be in the north, especially around the Dakotas, Wisconsin, and Minnesota where many locations are still measuring the snow depth in feet. The general rule of thumb out there is when planting gets in early or on schedule, this favors more corn acres to be planted. This could also lead to more cotton acres across the south.