Supply and demand revisited
Controversy and excitement make headlines. Looking at the December 9 USDA report for the grain markets, nothing profound or unexpected happened. The market slid lower as the tone of the report was negative, however, nothing “new” was discovered or disclosed that the market hadn’t been anticipating for the last two weeks.
Even though the report may have been underwhelming for journalists, the information is useful if you are a farmer whose livelihood depends on smart decisions. Below is a quick recap of the report:
The USDA's end of year stockpiles estimate for the U.S. is now pegged at 848 million bushels, up slightly from its November forecast of 843 million bushels, and above the average analyst guess of 838 million. The USDA cut its food, seed and industrial demand projection by 5 million bushels, to 4.6 billion. The USDA also raised its world ending stocks projection to 127.2 million metric tons from a prior forecast of 121.6 million. USDA estimates China end of year supplies at 56.97 million metric tons, up from 51.72 million estimated last month. Overall, corn prices are still in a sideways trend. It a good sign that corn did not plunge through technical support levels, nor were any sell stops triggered below technical support levels.
The USDA raised its estimate of U.S. 2011-12 soybean ending stocks to 230 million bushels, up from 195 million in November and above the average trade estimate of 214 million. The stocks increase came from reductions in USDA's forecasts of U.S. 2011-12 soybean exports and domestic crushing. The USDA also raised the 2011-12 global soybean carryout to 64.54 million tons, from 63.56 million in November.