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What to watch in September

09/09/2013 @ 2:23pm

Certainly traders will be watching weather conditions in September, and how they will affect the grain markets. Livestock producers are anxiously watching grain markets in order to ascertain feed costs going forward. In addition, for both grain and livestock producers, demand is what’s on the mind of traders, and this month there are plenty of reports to help fill in the missing pieces of that equation. Here’s what’s on tap for this month:

Thursday, September 12: USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Report

This report will give us a glimpse into possible yield reduction for the new crop as well as an idea if the USDA has tweaked export demand, feed demand, or even ethanol use.

Friday, September 20: Cattle on Feed Report

This report will look at cattle numbers for current marketings as well as future numbers. It should give an idea of supply, which is still expected to be small.

Friday, September 27: Hogs and Pigs Report

This full-text report, issued four times yearly, presents data on the U.S. pig crop, specifically, for 17 major states as well as a picture overall of the U.S., including inventory number by class, weight group, and value of hogs and pigs, farrowings, and farrowing intentions. It also includes the number of operations keeping hogs, the number of hog operations, and percent of inventory by size groups. It’s a big one, and many traders currently feel that supplies will likely increase due to cheaper feed inputs.

Monday, September 30: Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

This report, issued four times yearly, contains current quarterly ending stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, and soybeans by states and in the U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage). Taking note of this helps keep an eye on the demand side of the market, and from it one can gauge “how much is left over” and how much supply then needs to be rationed, or not rationed.

Market advisers can help evaluate these reports and develop a marketing plan that fits the goals of your operation for the future.

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at nblohm@stewart-peterson.com, or post a marketing question on the Women in Ag forum.

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