Machinery Pete: Deere 4440s with under 4,000 hours
Going to an auction about 30 miles up the road Saturday.
A very nice farm retirement auction by Maring Auction Company. The sale is in Lake City, Minnesota, just a half hour drive from my home base in Rochester, Minnesota. One item on this auction caught my eye in particular. A 1980 JD 4440 tractor with 3,981 actual hours, QR, new 480/80/R42 Michelin rear tires with duals, very clean.
I'll have my handheld HD video camera and will shoot video of this 4440 as it sells. I'll post the video clip on our Machinerypete.com website late Saturday afternoon.
What do you think it will sell for?
Let's look at comparables, other JD 4440 tractors with under 4,000 hours, and see what they've sold for at auction over the years. Just to make things fun, I combed through our list of 988 auction sale prices we've compiled on JD 4440s over the last 14 years and pulled out all the ones sold with under 4,000 hours.
Pretty interesting look back through time I think. Deere made 4440s from 1978-82, so back in 1996 when our auction sale price data starts in our table, 4440's were only 14-18 years old. Today, in 2010, 4440s are now 28-32 years old.
I'll tell you one thing that jumped out at me in the data. The breakdown of 4440s sold for $30,000 or more on a calendar year by calendar year basis. The beautiful thing about auction sales is the fact that they simply reflect how folks feel at certain points in time. So back in 1996 when commodity prices were high.
(7) JD 4440s sold for $30,000 or more at auction.
But then examine what happens in the ensuing years. From 1999-2003 how many 4440s did we see sold at auction for $30,000 or more? Only three. But as I've written about so often, in mid 2004 the used farm equipment took a turn higher as steel prices shot up. Might help explain why in 2004 we saw three 4440s sell for over $30,000 and two of those actually sold for $40,000 or more.
In 2006 we saw another four 4440s sell for $30,000 or more. Last year? How about six 4440s sold for $30,000 or more. Already this year there was the 1978 4440 with 2,205 hours sold February 26, 2010 on an auction in northeast Missouri for $32,500, and also these 4440's with over 4,000 hours that sold high:
- 1980 4440 with 4,047 hours, sold 2/24/10 in northeast Missouri $33,000
- yr?, 4440 with 4,634 hours, sold 4/3/10 in east-central Minnesota $33,500
- 1982 4440 with 5,198 hours, sold 3/6/10 in northeast Kansas $29,000
Just a high premium out there the last six years on older tractors in very nice condition, not just 4440s and not just green tractors, but all makes and models. So despite their increasing age, nice older model tractors like JD 4440s have been increasing in value. The trend has continued through the first quarter of 2010. Will it continue?