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Don't fret on hindsight

Agriculture.com Staff 10/27/2006 @ 12:50pm

The rally in the grain markets has had many producers disappointed they made early sales and, in some cases, disappointed they did not re-own more or sooner. This is always the case.

When prices are sharply lower, you have never sold enough, and when prices are sharply higher, you never own enough. However, it does you little good to fret and regret that you did not re-own. In hindsight, everything looks easy. However, the reality of this year is that, with the third largest corn crop and record soybeans, one normally does not look for a major rally at the onset of harvest.

Embrace the rally. One producer said he tried to do everything right, and the guy who did nothing benefits the most. That may be true to a point. Remember, the person who has done nothing is benefiting from high prices now, but unless that person sells a majority of his crop near or at the top, it's a moot point to worry or argue about whether that particular person benefited better than you or not.

Just a little over one month ago, we took call after call from producers who regretted not selling more. Now is the opportunity. The old saying goes, "be careful what you wish for." Producers wished for higher prices, and now they have them.

Bottom line, each day the market starts with a clean slate. There is one thing you should take comfort in: The market opens at 9:30 and no one knows with certainty where prices will end. What the last month showed farmers is that you need to be prepared. Do not be disappointed if the market does not move on your timetable. Be strategic and be prepared with the majority of your crop so that, whichever way the market decides to move, you are in a position to benefit. Or, at a minimum, try not to get caught the wrong way with all of your crop.

Stay vigilant. Do not concern yourself with the "what ifs." Take a hard look at the market each day and spend time evaluating how your operation is affected from this point onward. Rallies, in the long run, are generally good problems for producers to have, even in years where they have sold too soon. It generally means that any unpriced production in that year, plus crop in storage, plus the next year's crop is gaining value. A price rally is generally a good problem to have.

If you have any questions or comments, please contact Top Farmer at 1-800- TOP-FARM, ext. 129.

The rally in the grain markets has had many producers disappointed they made early sales and, in some cases, disappointed they did not re-own more or sooner. This is always the case.

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