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Friday CBOT trading ends higher for corn, soy

Agriculture.com Staff 06/30/2006 @ 2:00pm

Favorable acreage estimates and dry weather concerns provided higher trading Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade futures market for corn and soybeans. Traders expect weather models to determine market direction for Monday, one analyst said.

On Friday, the CBOT Dec. corn contract finished up 5 3/4 cents at $2.60 1/4. Also, July corn futures closed 7 cents higher at $2.35 1/2.

For soybeans, the Nov. futures contract finished 13 cents higher at $6.22 1/2. The July contract finished 13 cents higher as well.

Wheat closed 1 cent higher in September on the CBOT, 1 1/4 cents higher on the September Kansas City, and 5 ½ cents higher September Minneapolis.

Shawn Hackett, Roach Ag Marketing, said the USDA Plantings & Grain Stocks report, estimating higher corn acres, was not the basis for a market rally for corn, instead weather commanded attention.

"Right now, weather prospects for corn are not very good," Hackett said. "We are entering July very dry. This is not what you don't want to see heading into the pollination period."

In addition, bullish commercial and non-commercial (speculative) buying underpinned Friday's corn market.

For soybeans, the USDA report's lower stocks figure of 990 million bushels was lower than expected. Therefore, of all three commodities, the report influenced soybeans the most, Hackett said.

"Some of this higher trading occurred due to the USDA report, no doubt. But again, August is when pod-filling occurs and weather is a big concern yet for this crop," Hackett said.

From here on out, the market traders believe it's all about the weather, Hackett said. "If we come in on Monday morning and the weather models show warm, dry temperatures heading into the middle and late parts of July, we'll see a continuation of the market uptrend and it may actually accelerate."

On the other hand, a wet weather model on Monday could curb the gains from Friday.

Hackett was quick to point out that 2006 is on pace to be the ninth driest year on record.

"In fact, 11 counties in Iowa have had the driest June on record. So, we're going into July with not a lot of reserve. We can't afford anything but a rainy July and that is why the market is worried," Hackett said.

Favorable acreage estimates and dry weather concerns provided higher trading Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade futures market for corn and soybeans. Traders expect weather models to determine market direction for Monday, one analyst said.

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