Next Wednesday's supply/demand update has attracted attention and speculation. There is also a wheat crop estimate. Of course, there are some themes developing. First, old crop soybean carryout will be lowered. Second, based on delayed planting, corn yield will be reduced. Third, the wheat crop may be a little smaller.

At least the wheat crop number will be based on statistics. Changes in the supply/demand tables for this report are much more based on opinion. For corn and soybeans in particular, hard information doesn't come until the end of the month. The very important acreage and grain stocks reports will be released Tuesday morning, June 30th.

The USDA analysts could easily punt and wait to see what this hard data at the end of the month brings.

"Outside" fundamentals (influences from the broad market) have re-asserted their influence on trading in the past few days. The dollar's weakness has caused strength in commodity prices. Crude oil prices reinforce this trend. Plus there has been more and more interest in owning many types of commodities, with the exception of livestock. With these first days of June, therefore, has come new money flowing into index funds and other types of commodity funds.

This sort of buying is similar to last year, but perhaps with a different set of fundamental reasons behind it. Last year, energy prices were the primary driving factor and price action eventually took on the look of a bubble bursting. This year, commodities are looked at as a leader at this early stage of economic recovery. Add in a fear of inflation and commodities become one of the hot markets of 2009.

Next Wednesday's supply/demand update has attracted attention and speculation. There is also a wheat crop estimate. Of course, there are some themes developing. First, old crop soybean carryout will be lowered. Second, based on delayed planting, corn yield will be reduced. Third, the wheat crop may be a little smaller.