Home / Markets / Markets Analysis / Going from bullish to bullish-neutral on soybeans

Going from bullish to bullish-neutral on soybeans

Agriculture.com Staff 06/25/2007 @ 7:05am

History on March to June Acreage Reports: The ten year average adjustment to corn acres is a positive 277,000 acres. 60% of the time, USDA adjusted acres higher an average of 875,000 acres. The range high has been 1.964 million acres in 2004, with a range low of 17,000 acres in 1998. 40% of the time USDA adjusted acres lower by an ave of 620,000 acres with a range high of 1.189 million in 1997 with a range low of 100,000 in 2002. Present projected 2007-08 domestic end stocks to use are 8%, .6% lower than last years 8.6% when March to June acreage was increased by 1.347 million acres. In 1995, domestic end stocks to use were a record low 5% dating back to 1980. In 1995, the March to June acreage adjustment was 3.315 million acres. Of the 60% of the time when USDA increased acres from the March to June reports, 50% of the time the adjustment has been by a minimum of 1.347 million.

Soybean Acres: The ten year average adjustment to acres is a minus 54,000 acres. 40% of the time, USDA adjusted acres higher an average of 1.085 million acres. The range high has been 2.050 million acres in 1997, with a range low of 471,000 acres in 2003. 60% of the time USDA adjusted acres lower by an ave of 814,000 acres with a range high of 1.965 million in 2006 with a range low of 370,000 in 2000. Of the 40% of the time when USDA increased acres from the March to June reports, 50% of the time the adjustment has been by a minimum of 1.1 million.

Wheat Acres: The ten year average adjustment to acres is a positive 176,000 acres. 50% of the time, USDA adjusted acres higher an average of 1.019 million acres. The range high has been 1.58 million acres in 1997, with a range low of 407,000 acres in 2004. 50% of the time USDA adjusted acres lower by an ave of 668,000 acres with a range high of 1.228 million in 1998 with a range low of 146,000 in 1999. Interesting to note over the most recent 4 years, USDA has not adjusted acres by more than 757,000. Present projected 2007-08 domestic end stocks to use are 19.8%, which nearly mirror 1996 when the acreage adjustment was an increase of 2.516 million from the March to June USDA reports. Of the 50% of the time when USDA increased acres from the March to June reports, 50% of the time the adjustment has been by a minimum of 1.081 million.

Quarterly Stocks: USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly grain stocks report, along side the June Planted Acreage report on Friday June 29th at 7:30 am central time. Allendale estimates record use for corn for the third quarter of the 2006-07 marketing year of 2.654 bil bu vs the previous record a year earlier of 2.626 bil bu. Allendale official stocks estimate for corn on and off farm as of June 1 are 3.416 billion bushels. This represents a percent use for the third quarter of 44% which is better than 38% use for the same quarter one yr earlier and the 36% use two years earlier. The five year ave use for the third quarter has been 40% with a range high of 44% in 2003-04 and a range low of 36% for the 2004-05 marketing year. Our June 1 stocks on and off farm of 3.416 billion bushels compares to 3rd quarter levels of 4.362 billion a year earlier but more than 2.97 billion in 2003-04.

CancelPost Comment
MORE FROM AGRICULTURE.COM STAFF more +

Farm and ranch risk management resources By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am Government resources USDA Risk Management Agency Download free insurance program and…

Major types of crop insurance policies By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am Crop insurance for major field crops comes in two types: yield-based coverage that pays an…

Marketing 101 - Are options the right tool… By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am "If you are looking for a low risk way to protect yourself against prices moving either higher or…

MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Big Picture: CME Trading Weather