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Housecleaning

Agriculture.com Staff 03/15/2007 @ 1:02pm

Trading commodities is not for the faint of heart, as the corn and soybean market have shown since the first of the year. Just as soon as "Everyone" thought they had to buy corn futures, "Everyone" scrambled for the exit.

The lack of major fundamental news in some ways has caused this volatility, as the market is rarely satisfied staying in one place very long. So the market started drifting, and then drifting became sliding and sliding became a rout. It's too early to tell if the selling has exhausted itself.

Today’s export sales report had slightly disappointing totals for pretty much every commodity with the exception of soybean meal (a marketing year high of basically 300,000 metric tons was sold). Also positive for the soy complex was the announcement of two large export sales of beans before the opening-120,000 metric tons each to China and to Mexico.

Basically, the market is still waiting for the USDA acreage numbers, due the morning of March 30th. More private estimates have caused many to be comfortable with a 10 million acre increase in corn planting. The last private estimate, by Informa, is apparently due tomorrow.

The numbers for soybean acres have a little more variance. This does not seem to worry soybean traders, as the current carryout is substantial enough that it is hard to generate much volatility. Plus the crops from South America are large and slowly making their way to export channels.

Trading commodities is not for the faint of heart, as the corn and soybean market have shown since the first of the year. Just as soon as "Everyone" thought they had to buy corn futures, "Everyone" scrambled for the exit.

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