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Let the combines roll!

Agriculture.com Staff 10/01/2009 @ 3:24pm

That has got to be the thought of every merchandiser, processor and exporter! While there are many areas of the Corn Belt where harvest has started, cash grain movement has not been great enough to fill the pipelines.

The wet weather has moved from the Delta to the western Corn Belt and will soon spread eastward. Bean harvest, and some early corn harvest, has ground to a halt. The wet weather is forecast to last at least a week, leaving the pipelines less than full. No wonder, in spite of large crop estimates, the futures market has been content to chop around, rather than move lower in the face of the coming onslaught.

Thursday's USDA weekly export sales report contained large numbers for corn and soybean sales. Each number was over one million metric tons and larger than the pre-report expectations.

The marketing year is just getting started, but the total commitments for soybeans are approximately double last year's number. The main buyer is the obvious one -- China. This week they bought another 809,000 mt and "unknown" (often China) bought 359,000 mt. For corn, the sales pace is also above last year. The main buyers have included many Southeast Asian countries -- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. Also, Mexico is a larger buyer.

The market will pay attention to the weather forecasts -- farmers hope a drier forecast will soon surface. The other important numbers are crop estimates. The next private estimate comes out tomorrow (Friday) when Informa will put out numbers around 10:30 a.m. With the early yield reports generally better than imagined, especially for soybeans, market participants are looking for larger numbers for this report and for the USDA's October crop report (to be released October 9).

The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.

That has got to be the thought of every merchandiser, processor and exporter! While there are many areas of the Corn Belt where harvest has started, cash grain movement has not been great enough to fill the pipelines.

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