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Nothing new in USDA data, traders say

Agriculture.com Staff 02/08/2008 @ 6:40am

USDA released neutral to bullish data in its February Supply/Demand report Friday.

Vic Lespinasse, Illinois Grain, says nothing is surprising in this report.

"The soybean carryout number was bullish, corn number a little neutral. But, we're going to be higher on the opening due to the overnight bullishness. This report is not that significant."

CBOT early calls for Friday's opening are corn 7-10 higher, soybeans 25-30 cents higher, and wheat 30 cents higher.

For soybeans, USDA estimated U.S. 2007-2008 carryout at 160, below 175 million bushels in its January report and a 167 million bushel estimate from analysts. To even out the balance sheet, USDA increased soybean crush 5.0 million bushels and exports 10 million.

For corn, USDA set the 2007-2008 carryout at 1.438 million tons vs. the analysts estimate of 1.411 billion bushels and the January report estimate of 1.438 billion. "Nothing was changed with corn, despite a strong export market lately," one trader says.

USDA estimated 2007-2008 wheat carryout at 272 million tons, compared to its January estimate of 292 million bushels, and 274 million from analysts estimate. USDA increased exports and decreased residual use of wheat to get to this new number, traders say.

USDA WORLD CARRYOVER

USDA estimated 2007-2008 wheat carryover at 109.7 million tons compared to its January estimate of 110.93 million tons.

The 2007-2008 corn carryover is estimated at 101.9 million tons, vs. a January estimate of 101.33 million tons.

For soybeans, the USDA lowered the world carryover to 45.82 million tons from its January estimate of 46.24 million tons.

Meanwhile, USDA left Brazil's soybean production unchanged at 60.5 million tons.

USDA released neutral to bullish data in its February Supply/Demand report Friday.

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