The prospect of meaningful rainfall in the Plains has given wheat, corn and soybean prices a heavy feel. The rain has been in the forecast for about a week, and unlike other 'rain' events, the fact that it is still forecast is impressive. Starting tomorrow, the dry areas should begin to get smaller.

The persistence of the forecast, along with rain in the Corn Belt, causes market participants to re-evaluate their positions heading into spring planting season. It's harder to be bullish. A fall in wheat prices of more than 30 cents also naturally causes weakness in corn prices as the market always realizes the substitution that is possible with these feedgrains.

The export sales report this morning also lacked the sizzle of many past weeks. Wheat and bean exports were just plain small. China is still buying U.S. beans, but there were few other customers. Corn export sales were one million metric tons, within the range of pre-report guesses.

Today was perhaps the first day since the middle of January that corn and soybean futures prices really did not have any zip when new lows were made. During the past two months, new weekly lows during the day have been met with buying and prices have even closed higher by the end of the trading day. Today, new lows were just that—new lows. With bearish fundamentals and bearish technicals, the easiest path was down.

The prospect of meaningful rainfall in the Plains has given wheat, corn and soybean prices a heavy feel. The rain has been in the forecast for about a week, and unlike other 'rain' events, the fact that it is still forecast is impressive. Starting tomorrow, the dry areas should begin to get smaller.