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Reactions to Friday's USDA reports

Agriculture.com Staff 08/10/2007 @ 7:10am

"On the surface, what you clearly see is what this says from a yield standpoint: The market has avoided any disasters. Yields are good despite the weather problems we've had this year here and there, so it will go down as a mild to stressful year.

"It's a respectable carryout number for corn. Historically, what happens on yields, they have a tendency to grow going into the final report, so that will be the highlight.

"On the other side, world demand is on the rise -- while we have adequate supplies in the U.S., our world ending stocks did go back down 6 million metric tons. There will be a battle to buy acres again this year.

"I don't think these numbers will be a big surprise. The numbers are slightly positive on the world corn ending stock figures, and slightly negative for the U.S. situation. With soybeans, you have to say the yields will have a chance to grow a bit here with the weather we've been having.

"The reaction will not be a huge difference as we prepare for harvest. We will see carry-through on the financial market around the world and the weather going forward from here -- those will be the big stories."

"We are thinking, for the production side, this was very much neutral. There's not a whole lot to pull out of it. We really have to get into the stocks situation. Both old- and new-crop soybean stocks, it's a little bit bullish on those. We're calling them up 3-5 cents this morning.

"We lost almost 2 million metric tons of world wheat, and we see that as supportive. Lost over 6 million metric tons of world corn in the last month.

"In the new National Weather Service 10-day forecast, we see more normal to above-normal precipitation for the Midwest, for around August 15 to 19. But, we won't buy into that until it gets closer.

"On the world financials side, Paribas BNP bank in France suspended operations on three funds they work with. Other banks -- Credit Suisse and Deutschebank -- could follow. If they need to generate cash, French and U.S. wheat futures could be ripe for the picking. There's an opportunity for that today. There's always the potential that we could see some major profit-taking today.

"If there's somebody that could get hurt today, it could be wheat. We've got a bullish report here today, but we're pushing some market highs. If there's one market that could be vulnerable, it's wheat."

Editor's note: Kluis was in the USDA "lock-up" where analysts compiled the data released in Friday's report.

"The corn number came in 200 million bushels above trade estimates, with the projected yield the second-highest ever on the largest acreage. This combination of good yields and record acreage is probably a little negative for price.

"If you look at the projected usage going up, this year's ending stocks stay about unchanged from a month ago, and the projected ending stocks are very close to trade estimates.

"We have such a large corn crop, but we're going to use it. Ending stocks on soybeans fell to 575 million bushels, and they're projected to be down next year to 220 million bushels. If there are any positive price impacts to come out of today's report, it would be the deferred price soybean contracts.

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