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Time to Count

Agriculture.com Staff 10/09/2009 @ 9:14am

Last week, I pondered whether the September 11 low in the cash soybean market was the harvest low. It took less than 24 hours for the market to give a negative answer that question. A hard day down last Friday took out the previous low and started the 'dead cat bounce' count all over again. This week the market began with a big move higher. It is time to start the count all over again.

It is interesting to note that the new low came the third trading day of October, the exact day that the long term charts show is the average day for that move. It remains to be seen if Monday's low is the low for the move or if prices again retreat and make another new low. Given the slowness of the harvest and tightness of the world wide supplies of soybeans, my bet is that the October 5 low will hold.

If prices continue to work higher from here, we need to see at least 10 days of prices higher than the October 5 low and the cash bid at a local elevator 35 cents over the low of that day before beginning to think about making any soybean sales. I have no similar hard-and-fast rules to know when a top is made. For now, be content to watch the market move higher and count the rally days. With the slowness of harvest, I have to think that the markets will be on edge until there is more progress in getting the crop in the bin. That should make this 'dead cat bounce' another big one similar to the last two years.

Time passes! This has been a stressful week at the Smith household. My 100 year old aunt passed away on October 1. She had no children of her own. My name was on her health care power of attorney. I did not know that until I got a call from the hospital early Monday morning needing a decision on a health question. Along with the stress of harvest I spent a lot of time dealing with that crisis.

This morning I learned that another of the "old timers" in the small community of five close-by farms passed away last night. When I was growing up my family shared hay baling labor with the farmers in this group. Now there is only one member of that small group of farmers still alive and she is in her nineties. One more funeral and I will be the old timer around here.

Last week, I pondered whether the September 11 low in the cash soybean market was the harvest low. It took less than 24 hours for the market to give a negative answer that question. A hard day down last Friday took out the previous low and started the 'dead cat bounce' count all over again. This week the market began with a big move higher. It is time to start the count all over again.

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