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USDA data seen as bearish for soybeans, friendly for corn

Agriculture.com Staff 02/09/2007 @ 7:18am

The U.S. 2006-2007 ending supply of soybeans is expected to be at record levels, the USDA estimated in its Crop Production report on Friday. USDA left its corn and wheat ending stocks estimates unchanged from January.

For soybeans, the USDA estimated 2006-2007 ending stocks at 595 milion bushels, up 20 million from its January estimate. The average trade guess was 571 million bushels, a 4.0 million decline from January.

Jason Ward, NorhStar Commodity Investment Co., said the report is seen as bearish for the soybean market. "The USDA is saying soybean exports will not make their target for the year," Ward said. "USDA sees the upcoming South America soybean crop as taking over the world export scene in the coming months."

For corn, USDA estimated ending stocks at 752 million bushels, unchanged from its January report. "The trade thought the report would show an increase of 14.0 million bushels, that didn't happen. So, this report is friendly to the corn market," Ward said. "The ending stocks may have been unchanged due to higher corn prices slowing exports."

USDA estimated 2006-2007 wheat ending stocks at 472 million bushels, unchanged from January. "If we keep this strong export pace, we'll have to lower that number by 1.0 million in future reports," Ward said.

World carryout numbers were not that surprising, Ward said. For wheat, USDA lowered its carryout estimate by 36 million bushels. The world soybean carryout estimate was increased by 50 million bushels compared to the January estimate. USDA raised its 2006-2007 world corn carryout estimate by 1.5 million metric tons.

The U.S. 2006-2007 ending supply of soybeans is expected to be at record levels, the USDA estimated in its Crop Production report on Friday. USDA left its corn and wheat ending stocks estimates unchanged from January.

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