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USDA data seen as friendly for corn and soybean markets

Agriculture.com Staff 09/12/2008 @ 6:45am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA released friendly U.S. crop estimates Friday.

Based on the USDA report this morning, CBOT floor traders call corn to open up 7-10 cents, soybeans 25-30 cents, and wheat 8-10 higher.

CBOT floor traders are saying the report is friendly for the markets this morning. For an early call on prices, the corn is called higher and the soybeans will be based off of the overnight trading which was higher.

"The USDA has given us a friendly corn yield number to trade. But, there are no surprises in this report for soybeans," one floor trader says. "Plus, we have bullish outside markets that could trump this report."

USDA, in its September Crop Production and Supply/Demand report, estimated U.S. 2008 corn production at 12.072 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate of 12.152 billion bushels and below the August estimate of 12.288 billion.

The U.S. 2008 corn yield estimate is set at 152.3, below the average trade estimate of 153.3 bushels per acre, and below the USDA's August estimate of 155 bushels.

For soybeans, USDA pegged 2008 U.S. production at 2.934 billion bushels, within range of the average trade estimate of 2.95 billion bushels, and within the August estimate of 2.973 billion bushels.

The USDA sees 2008 U.S. soybean yields averaging 40.0 bushels per acre, within the average trade estimate of 40.2 bushels per acre, and near the August estimate of 40.5 bushels per acre.

Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the USDA showed in this report they will be cutting this crop even more.

"I think they're what the people on the ground had feared and suspected--this crop is not getting bigger, it's getting smaller. Wet weather and denitrification is taking a toll on corn, and a dry August took a toll on beans. Big crops get bigger, and shrinking crops keep shrinking. The USDA sent a clear signal that demand is starting to cut back a bit, and they're trying to keep balance table in order. It shows that the battle for acres is going to continue," Roose says.

USDA estimated U.S. 2007-08 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, below the 143 million analyst estimate but above the August estimate of 135 million. For 2008-09, USDA estimated the U.S. soybean ending stocks at 135 million bushels, equal to the August report estimate.

For corn, the USDA estimated 2007-08 ending stocks at 1.576 billion bushels, below the trade's guess of 1.578 billion, and equal to the USDA August estimate. For 2008-09, USDA estimated U.S. corn ending stocks at 574 million bushels, above trade estimates and equal to the USDA August estimate.

For wheat, USDA estimated U.S. 2008-09 ending stocks at 574 million bushels, equal to its August estimate.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA released friendly U.S. crop estimates Friday.

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