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USDA data seen as mixed-to-friendly

Agriculture.com Staff 04/09/2010 @ 6:35am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released mixed market data in its April Supply/Demand Report Friday. So far, Early calls for the commodities are corn up 2-3 cents, soybeans 3-5 cents higher and wheat up 6-8 cents.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC, says the report is mixed. "Slightly bullish due to carryouts but world ending stocks are higher across the board. Look for a higher open mainly due to a supportive crude oil market and a weaker U.S. dollar heading into the weekend.

U.S. CARRYOUT

For soybeans, the USDA estimated the U.S. 2009-10 carryout at 190 million bushels vs. the trade estimate of 209 million and the USDA's March estimate of 190 million.

The USDA on March 31 reported larger-than-expected soybean stocks both stored on and off the farm, and this painted a more comfortable old-crop supply situation than the market had previously expected.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co. says that according to the March grain stocks the U.S. had 60 million more bushels that were "in transit". "USDA raised exports by 25 million bushels and reduced the residual on soybeans by 26 million bushels. This accounted for 51 million bushels of the 60 million."

Ward adds, "We now need to average 4.8 million bushels/week of export to reach the new increased target, not too steep of an expectation. We need to average 3.8 million bushels/week before this report, so just 1 million more per week."

Ward says he is surprised the USDA didn’t raise the soybean crush numbers. "It is likely to happen in the coming reports. Crush margins are still positive and crushers are searching for soybeans."

For corn, the USDA estimated U.S. 2009-10 carryout at 1.899 billion bushels, vs. the trade expectation of 1.909 billion bushels and the government's previous estimate of 1.799 billion.

USDA estimated U.S. 2009-10 wheat carryout at 950 billion bushels compared to the average trade estimate of 1.001 billion bushels and the USDA's March estimate of 1.001 billion bushels.

WORLD CARRYOVER

USDA pegged the world 2009-10 wheat carryover at 195.8 million metric tons vs. its March estimate of 196.8 million metric tons. The world corn carryover was estimated at 144.2 million metric tons vs. the government's previous estimate of 140.2 million. For soybeans, the USDA estimated 2009-10 world carryover at 62.96 million metric tons vs. 60.67 million in March.

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com, says the report offers some friendliness. "Corn ending stocks came in at 1.899 b.b. 100 m.b. over last months report and slightly under pre report average estimates , gives potential for a lower open but could see the upside today."

For wheat, Hannagan says the U.S. carryout came in at 950 m.b. down from 1.001 b.b. last month. However, it's still a huge ending stocks number leaving it neutral for today's market. "Wheat will follow corn," Hannagan says.

Hannagan adds, " Beans were a surprise at 190 .m.b. U.S. carryout, unchanged from last month under pre-report estimates of 209 m.b. This again suggests bean demand is running far better than government prior estimates. So, look for a higher bean open."

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