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USDA data seen as negative to grain market

Agriculture.com Staff 01/12/2009 @ 6:45am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA released bearish data in its January Production and Quarterly Stocks reports Monday, CBOT traders say.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC, says overall the report is bearish with outside markets helping downside move this morning.

"Very bearish for corn with wheat bullish due to seedings numbers. Beans caught in the middle with higher ending stocks but still very low. Plus, the USDA did not lower Brazil production leaving door open to lowering soon," Pierce says.

"None of these numbers are friendly," one CBOT floor trader says. "We'll have to wait and see on the open. The macro-economic factors are all negative, so no support there either."

For corn production, USDA's final 2008 estimate is 12.01 billion bushels, higher than the average trade estimate of 11.98 billion bushels. USDA estimated the 2008 corn yield at 153.9 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 153.3.

On Monday, the USDA estimated the 2008 U.S. soybean production at 2.95 billion bushels, above the average trade estimate of 2.91 billion bushels. USDA estimated the 2008 soybean yield at 39.6 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 39.1.

The USDA in November estimated soybean production at 2.921 billion bushels with a yield of 39.3. Corn was estimated at 12.020 billion bushels total production with a yield of 153.8 bushels per acre.

For All Winter Wheat, USDA estimated 2008-09 seedings at 42.098 million acres, compared to the average trade estimate of 44.178 million. ,

USDA estimated 2008-09 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.790 billion bushels, higher than the average trade estimate of 1.489 billion. Soybeans ending stocks were estimated at 225 million bushels, larger than the average trade estimate of 186 million. The USDA estimated U.S. wheat ending stocks at 655 million bushels, above the average trade estimate of 600 million.

For Quarterly Grain Stocks, as of December 1, USDA estimated corn stocks at 10.084 billion, above the average estimate of 9.845 billion. Soybean quarterly stocks are estimated at 2.216 billion, above the average trade estimate of 2.181 billion. For wheat, the USDA estimated quarterly stocks at 1.422 billion bushels, above the average trade estimate of 1.365 billion.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA released bearish data in its January Production and Quarterly Stocks reports Monday, CBOT traders say.

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