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USDA data seen as neutral to bearish

Agriculture.com Staff 11/10/2008 @ 6:40am

CHICAGO, Illinois(Agriculture Online)--USDA released mixed data for the corn and soybean futures markets Monday.

Despite the USDA report seen as bearish for soybeans, neutral to friendly for the corn market, strong outside markets are seen pushing commodities higher Monday, traders say.

For corn, USDA estimated U.S. production at 12.020 billion bushels, below its October estimate of 12.033 billion, and below the average trade estimate at 12.050.

USDA estimated the U.S. corn yield at 153.8 bushels per acre, below its previous estimate of 153.9, and below the average trade estimate of 154.1.

For soybeans, USDA estimated 2008 production at 2.921bushels, above its previous estimate of 2.938 billion bushels, and above the average trade estimate of 2.927 billion bushels.

USDA estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 39.3 bushels per acre, slightly below its previous estimate of 39.5 bpa in October, and slightly above the average trade estimate of 39.3.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC, says the report is not very interesting.

"A bit of a surprise with a yield reduction in corn and only a slight reduction in beans. The reduction in exports for both corn and beans is the USDA again hedging bets. Overall we should follow overnight strength with a strong crude market helping early momentum," Pierce says.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodities , says the report is seen as friendly corn, slightly negative wheat/soybeans. "However, I would assume the $600 billion stimulus package passed in China would still have us trade higher today as crude oil is up $4.20/barrel, US Dollar down nearly 100 points and stock market up 140 points," Ward says.

USDA lowered soybean crush 15 million bushels. Soybean export data was left unchanged, "I disagree with this. USDA has us selling 130 million bushels less than last year’s exports and so far we are ahead of last year’s pace by 74 million bushels. If we keep this pace up, think about it, USDA is off by 130+74 million = 204 million bushels, carryout projection is 205 million bushels," Ward says.

Ward adds, "Export sales for soybeans need to slow down, and going lower on the price is not the right direction for that to happen."

USDA estimated U.S. 2008-2009 soybean ending stocks at 205 million bushels, unchanged from its October estimate. U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.124 billion bushels, higher than the October estimate of 1.088. For wheat, USDA estimated U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks at 603 million bushels, above its October estimate of 601 million.

CHICAGO, Illinois(Agriculture Online)--USDA released mixed data for the corn and soybean futures markets Monday.

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