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USDA data seen as no shocker to the market

Agriculture.com Staff 03/31/2010 @ 6:40am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--U.S. farmers will plant (88.798 million acres of corn, 78.098 million acres of soybeans in 2010. The CBOT floor traders see this morning's USDA Prospective Plantings Report as no shocker to the grain markets.

Early calls are corn down 2-4 cents, soybeans 4-8 cents lower, and wheat follows.

Scott Shellady, GFI Inc. Agriculture Manager, and CBOT floor trader, says the report is definitely bearish. "There are just no shockers in this data."

If realized, the USDA corn planting intentions estimate would be slightly lower vs. the average trade estimate of 88.941 million and above 86.5 million acres last year.

USDA's 2010 U.S. soybean estimate of 78.098 million acres is below the average trade estimate of 78.550 million acres, and above last year's seedings of 77.5 million.

For All-Wheat, USDA estimated 2010 U.S. plantings at 53.827 million acres, vs. the average trade estimate of 53.325 million.

GRAIN STOCKS

USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. corn stocks at 7.694 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 7.505 billion bushels and the USDA's March estimate of 6.954 billion bushels.

For U.S. soybeans, the USDA stocks estimate is 1.270 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.207 billion bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 1.302 billion.

USDA estimates U.S. wheat stocks at 1.352 billion bushels compared to the average trade estimate of 1.364 billion bushels and its March estimate of 1.040 billion.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC, says the report is bearish. "Bearish stocks for corn with beans and wheat right on expectations. Corn acreage just under expectations but still massive. Bean acreage just over 78, 400K lower than expectations. Total wheat 500' above with winter wheat to blame. Overall bearish but new crop beans should pick up against new crop corn."

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com Market Analyst, sees the report as neutral for the corn market. "The report number came in just under the average pre-report trade guess at 88.941 versus 86.5 last year, I would imagine a lower opening range eventually gives way to short covering pulling us off the low."

For soybeans, Hannagan says soybeans too were just under the average guess. "But, the number of 78.098 versus 77.5 isn't enough to offset huge demand or give us any allowance for poor weather conditions so expect higher opening trade," Hannagan says.

Hannagan says the report was bearish for wheat. "Wheat should follow corn on the day. No surprises here so after minor adjustments by specs, look for two side trade early."

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CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--U.S. farmers will plant (88.798 million acres of corn, 78.098 million acres of soybeans in 2010. The CBOT floor traders see this morning's USDA Prospective Plantings Report as no shocker to the grain markets.

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