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USDA data seen neutral-to-bullish

Agriculture.com Staff 12/11/2007 @ 6:45am

The USDA released neutral-to-bullish data in its December Supply/Demand and World Production reports Tuesday, analysts say.

For corn, USDA estimates the 2007-2008 corn carryout at 1.797 billion bushels, below the analysts estimate of 1.879. USDA raised corn exports by 100 million bushels.

Roy Huckabay, Linn Group, calls the early trading 5 cents higher across the board. "Everybody was looking for carryouts to come down because of an increase in consumption, and that is exactly what we got," Huckabay says. "Because we got what we were looking for, you might find some people liquidating long positions, at the opening of the market."

For soybeans, USDA raised 2007-2008 exports by 20 million bushels, raised crush by 5.0 million, with a carryout at 185 million bushels. Increased oil and soymeal exports helped lower the carryout for soybeans.

For wheat, USDA raised exports up 25 million, which pulled U.S. wheat carryout down to a record 280 million bushels. "That's a record all-time low, last month's estimate was a record all-time low of 312 million bushels," Huckabay says.

The major drawdown came in the hard wheat category.

Overall, Don Roose, U.S. Commmodities, says the report says the weak Dollar is giving the U.S. the advantage on the world export market.

"The market is now looking at how high is high for U.S. commodity prices," Roose says. "If the demand backs off at certain levels that means we are rationing. But, no, the market is not rationing at these higher price levels."

In its report, USDA left the South American soybean production unchanged. Also, the China soybean production estimate was unchanged.

The USDA released neutral-to-bullish data in its December Supply/Demand and World Production reports Tuesday, analysts say.

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