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USDA data seen very bullish for soybeans

Agriculture.com Staff 05/09/2008 @ 6:40am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA released bullish soybean numbers Friday in its monthly Supply/Demand report, traders say. For corn, the report looks bearish, but has longterm bullishness, traders say.

"On the surface, you might look at this report as bearish for corn. But, there is no bearish number in this report, it's all bullish," one CBOT floor trader says. "I'm calling soybeans up 20-30 cents higher, and corn 5-10 higher."

Matt Pierce, Futures International, LLC, says the USDA report is very bullish for beans, slightly bullish for corn.

"The report is slightly bullish for corn because the current weather is a larger factor right now than the report numbers. The report appears bearish for wheat, due to excessive production," Pierce says.

USDA estimated U.S. 2007-08 corn carryout at 1.45 billion bushels, vs. its April estimate of 1.283 billion bushels and an analyst average estimate of 1.320 billion.

For 2008-09, USDA estimates U.S. corn carryout at 763 million bushels, higher than analysts estimate of 707 million. "If you look beyond this number, USDA is making some assumptions on supply that I think a lot of people will question," Nathan Toss, a CBOT floor trader says.

USDA estimated the U.S. 2008 corn yield at 153.9 bushels per acre, 2.8 bushels per acre higher than last year. "But, considering how late this year's corn is going in the ground, the weather forecast is bullish for corn," Toss says.

For soybeans, the USDA estimates the 2007-08 U.S. carryout at 145 million bushels, below its April estimate of 160 million and an average analyst estimate of 152 million. This is the bullish data of the report, traders say.

USDA estimated 2007-08 U.S. soybean carryout at 185 million bushels compared to analyst estimates of 273 million.

U.S. wheat producers will raise 2.392 billion bushels this year, USDA estimates. The average analyst estimate was lower at 2.29 billion.

USDA sees the U.S. 2007-08 wheat carryout at 239 million bushels, below its last month estimate of 242 million bushels, and a analyst estimate of 243 million.

USDA says the U.S. winter wheat producers will raise 1.778 billion bushels in 2008-09, vs. an average analyst estimate of 1.701 blllion.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA released bullish soybean numbers Friday in its monthly Supply/Demand report, traders say. For corn, the report looks bearish, but has longterm bullishness, traders say.

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