It's the first day of the annual USDA Outlook Conference and so far, the information released is very "vanilla." The acreage numbers include 86 million acres planted for corn and 77 million acres for soybeans.

These numbers definitely fit with the average guesses for 2009 plantings that have circulated during the winter and have not provoked any sort of large market reaction.

Survey-based data will be collected for the March 1st Prospective Plantings report, which will be released March 31st. After that date, weather will probably be the largest influence on acres. Good planting conditions encourage more corn, while wet/cold conditions make the market imagine more bean acres.

Despite all the turmoil in the financial markets, there's really no anxiety gripping the ag markets right now. The estimates of South American crop size have stopped going down. Current supplies are more than adequate. The economic situation is bad enough that no one is forecasting immediately increasing demand numbers that would push carryout numbers lower.

The most worrisome thing would be a below trend yield for new crop corn. Demand in all major categories-feed, ethanol, exports-will probably increase from the low levels currently being experienced. How close carryout is to the psychologically important one billion bushels will directly affect price direction and volatility this summer.

The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.

It's the first day of the annual USDA Outlook Conference and so far, the information released is very "vanilla." The acreage numbers include 86 million acres planted for corn and 77 million acres for soybeans.