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USDA releases bearish corn, bullish soybean report

Agriculture.com Staff 03/30/2007 @ 6:58am

With a huge 2007 corn plantings estimate of 90.454 million acres, up 15% from last year, the USDA released a bearish report Friday.

USDA, in its U.S. Prospective Planting & Grain Stocks reports, estimated corn acres higher than the trade average of 88.061 million, and significantly higher than the 2006 seedings of 78.327.

If realized, USDA's corn estimate would be the largest amount of corn acres in the U.S. since 1944.

The 2007 corn grain stocks were estimated at 6.078 billion bushels, above the average trade guess of 6.023 billion bushels, and below March 1 2006 stocks of 6.987.

Don Roose, U.S. Commodities said the report is seen as bearish for Friday's market.

"For old and new crop it's bearish," Roose said. "This report says the demand for corn is growing and we have to raise a big corn crop."

The corn stocks in all position were estimated larger than what the trade was looking for by about 70.0 million bushels. "So, iIf you look at the balance sheet's bottom line for corn carryover, the old stocks level should go over 800 million bushels, and new crop stocks over 1.2 billion bushels," Roose said.

Roose sees Friday's corn market opening 6-12 cents lower, and soybeans 7-11 cents higher.

Meanwhile, Roose sees the report bullish for soybeans.

"I think the report says the soybean supplies are tighter than what we thought," Roose said.

For soybeans, USDA said U.S. producers intend to plant 67.140 million acres. USDA's soybean estimate is lower than the trade average guess of 69.167 million, and sharply below the 2006 seedings of 75.522.

USDA estimated 2007 soybean stocks at 1.784 billion bushels, above the March 1 2006 stocks level of 1.669 billion.

For wheat, USDA estimated 2007 winter wheat prospective plantings at 44.54 million acres, and 60.3 million for all wheat.

The USDA report is derived by data collected from the first two weeks in March. USDA contacted over 87,000 producers by mail, telephone, or by personal interview.

Separately, for Iowa, one of the largest corn producing states, the USDA estimated a corn crop of 13.9 million bushels, the fourth largest crop ever if realized. For soybeans, with a crop estimate of 9.2 million, that is 952,000 acres below last year. Iowa could see the largest ever year-to-year drop in soybean acres.

Joe Prusacki, Director USDA/National Agricultural Statistics Service, Iowa Field Office, former Branch Chief for Field Crops in Washington, D.C., said the report clearly indicates Iowa producers are definitely reacting to prices.

"Is this report shocking, well, we just look at the numbers, but we'll see how the markets react," Prusacki said.

With a huge 2007 corn plantings estimate of 90.454 million acres, up 15% from last year, the USDA released a bearish report Friday.

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