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USDA releases mostly negative stocks figures

Agriculture.com Staff 09/30/2009 @ 6:45am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA Wednesday released mostly negative data for the markets in its Quarterly Stocks Report. These stock figures represent what's left from last year's crop, as of September 1, 2009.

Due to the bearish report, Early calls for this morning's trade open are corn down 1-2 cents, beans up 1 to down 2, wheat down 2-3.

For soybeans, USDA estimated U.S. stocks on-hand at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected by the trade.

For corn, USDA pegged U.S. stocks on-hand at 1.674 billion bushels vs. the average analysts estimate of 1.719 billion.

USDA estimated the U.S. wheat stocks, as of Sep 1, at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analysts estimate of 2.132 billion bushels. This makes for the largest wheat stocks since the 2000/01 marketing year when 1st quarter stocks were recorded at 2.353 billion bushels.

Jim Bower, Bower Trading, says the report will be seen as negative by the market. "The market will now square itself to the Oct. 12 production report. Other than a little support for corn, these numbers today are unfriendly for the grain prices."

All wheat production is pegged at 2.22 billion bushels vs. average trade estimates of 2.195 billion bushels.

Joe Victor, Allendale Inc. says at first glance, the stocks report is bearish. "USDA revised up the 2008 soybean production by 8.0 million bushels, corn stocks neutral, wheat stocks bearish. Heavy starches, light protein."

With on-farm corn stocks up 22% vs year ago levels, "That suggests with a new crop on the way commercials will not be basis aggressive as farmers may have big problems finding sufficient on-farm storage for what is expected to be the second largest corn crop," Victor says.

Meanwhile, Victor says the USDA released U.S. Spring wheat production at 587 million bushels, higher than the average estimate of 552 million. "This sets up a big battle in hard red winter wheat and spring wheat country for new crop corn and soybean storage, given slack demand for HRWW and big spring wheat crop," Victor says.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA Wednesday released mostly negative data for the markets in its Quarterly Stocks Report. These stock figures represent what's left from last year's crop, as of September 1, 2009.

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