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USDA report seen as negative for corn, friendly for soybeans

Agriculture.com Staff 08/12/2009 @ 6:40am

The USDA released mixed data Wednesday for the CBOT grain markets. Floor traders say the USDA data will be negative for corn prices, positive for soybeans.

Early calls for the commodities are 5-7 cents higher for soybeans, 5-7 cents lower for corn and wheat, CBOT floor traders say.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC, and CBOT floor trader says the USDA released a market-moving report. "Wildly bullish for beans with corn wildly bearish. The yield for corn is staggering. Lowering bean yield will scare people. Corn will be hammered and possibly hamper positive bean momentum."

For the 2009/10 corn crop, the USDA pegged production at 12.761 billion bushels, above the average analysts' estimate of 12.508 billion bushels, and above the USDA's July estimate of 12.290 billion.

USDA estimated the U.S. corn yield at 159.5 bushels per acre vs. its July estimate of 153 bu./acre, and the trade's average estimate of 157.

For soybeans, USDA estimated the U.S. 2009/10 production at 3.199 billion bushels compared to its previous estimate of 3.260 billion and the average trade estimate of 3.225 billion bushels.

The U.S. soybean yield was dropped from the USDA's July estimate of 42.6 bushels per acre to 41.7.

All Wheat production is estimated at 2.184 billion bushels vs. the average trade guess of 2.152 billion and the USDA's July estimate of 2.112 billion.

ENDING STOCKS

The other closely watched estimates from this morning's report are the ending stocks.

For the 2008/09 U.S. old-crop corn ending stocks, the USDA estimates 1.720 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.748 billion bushels and the USDA's July estimate of 1.770 billion bushels. For 2009/10, the USDA's new-crop ending stock estimate is 1.621 billion bushels compared to the average trade estimate of 1.699 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. 2008/09 ending stocks at 110 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 104 million bushels and its July estimate of 110 million. For 2009/10 new-crop soybean ending stocks, the USDA estimated 210 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 212 million bushels and the USDA July estimate of 250 million bushels.

The USDA released mixed data Wednesday for the CBOT grain markets. Floor traders say the USDA data will be negative for corn prices, positive for soybeans.

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