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USDA's December report not major, traders say

Agriculture.com Staff 02/07/2016 @ 7:04am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--CBOT traders see little market impact from Tuesday's USDA Supply/Demand and World Production reports.

On Tuesday, USDA will release its December Supply/Demand report at 7:30am CST.

Though all eyes are on the USDA's January figures, traders will be eyeing the U.S. and world wheat stocks in Tuesday's report.

For U.S. wheat, the 2007-2008 carryout is estimated at 296 million bushels, below USDA's November estimate of 312 million bushels, according to a Dow Jones news service survey of analysts.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC, says the U.S. wheat stocks' smaller number will not be a surprise. "We haven't seen that much in the way of big exports since November's report," Pierce says.

The world wheat ending stocks, estimated at 109 million metric tons could be lowered a little, traders say. "Simply, the reason is that recent world consumption has put wheat into storage that is not counted," Pierce says.

Overall, the USDA wheat estimates are expected to be neutral to slightly bullish for new crop, not old crop, Pierce says.

For soybeans, Pierce sees the USDA raising U.S. exports, which would lower the U.S. ending stocks figure to under 200 million bushels. The average estimates range between 150-200 million bushels.

Due to increased exports, Pierce sees the USDA lowering the 2007-2008 U.S corn carryout to 1.80 billion bushels.

Vic Lespinasse, Illinois Grain floor trader, agrees this month's report is not major.

"My guess is the market will pay the most attention to the wheat numbers that the USDA puts out," Lespinasse says.

Lespinasse adds, "How much corn the USDA estimates is being used for ethanol will be watched," Lespinasse says.

The USDA estimate for the Brazil's soybean production is a number to watch, Pierce says. "There shouldn't be any major change, but any variance would send the trade rolling one direction or the other," Pierce says.

In November, the USDA estimated Brazil's soybean production at 62.0 million metric tons.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--CBOT traders see little market impact from Tuesday's USDA Supply/Demand and World Production reports.

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