Upcoming USDA report seen attracting market attention
On June 29, the USDA will release the annual Acreage report and the quarterly Grain Stocks report. These reports take on a little more importance for corn, soybeans, and wheat this year for a variety of reasons.
These include the rapid rate of increase in consumption; the low and/or declining level of world grain inventories; and concerns about production in a number of acres, particularly in the U.S. A difference of a few acres planted or a few bushels in inventory could have significant price implication in this environment. This issue highlights the Acreage report and next week's issue will address the June 1 Grain Stocks report.
The markets will be interested in at least three pieces of information in the Acreage report. First, is the total planted acreage (harvested acreage of hay) of all crops. Intentions for all non-hay crops reported in January (winter wheat) and March (most other crops) totaled 256.37 million acres, 3.26 million more than planted to those crops in 2006. In addition, acres of hay intended for harvest in 2007 was 2.25 million more than harvested in 2006. It will be important to see if planted acreage was nearly 2 percent more than planted in 2006, as indicated in March, or if adverse weather resulted in fewer planted acres. The comparison to 2006 acreage may be made a little more difficult if failed acres of wheat, for example, were replanted to another crop. A state-by-state analysis of acreage will help shed some light on that issue.
The second important piece of information in the Acreage report is obviously the estimates of planted acreage of individual crops. A lot of the focus will be on corn and soybeans. In March, producers reported intentions to increase planted acreage of corn by 12.1 million acres (15 percent) and to reduce planted acreage of soybeans by 8.4 million acres (11 percent). There are clear differences of opinion about actual planted acres relative to these intentions. A review of the weekly reports of corn planting progress by state reveals no significant delays in planting that crop. In all major states, the majority of the crop was planted by the second week of May, with planting essentially complete by the third week of May. Generally timely planting opportunities, then, do not point to a significant change in acreage from intentions based on concerns about potential yield loss from late planting.
From early March, when the survey of planting intentions was conducted, through late April, December 2007 corn futures declined about $.50. Prices were generally higher, but volatile, during the first half of May. In contrast, November 2007 soybean futures increased about $.20 per bushel from early March to late April, but dropped by $.60 during the month of May. Again, opinions differ about whether the changing price relationships influenced producers planting decisions. It would be surprising if planting decisions were significantly influenced by the short duration of price variability.