Home / Markets / Markets Analysis / Western Corn Belt to stay dry, eastern areas 'sailing along', meteorologist says

Western Corn Belt to stay dry, eastern areas 'sailing along', meteorologist says

Agriculture.com Staff 07/10/2006 @ 1:47pm

A drought is expected to persist for the western Corn Belt, but Illinois and Indiana farmers can expect favorable crop weather for July, one meteorologist said on Monday.

Peter Leavitt, a certified consulting meteorologist, told Agriculture Online the July weather pattern that is persevering indicates it will be dry in the northern half of the Plains into northern Iowa and Minnesota.

"That area is where the weather ballgame is going to be played," Leavitt said.

During the spring and summer months, a weather trough has been coming over the top of the Rockies, dropping southeastward through the Great Lakes on into the eastern US, Leavitt said.

As of Monday morning, the weather model run at 7:00 a.m. EST, showed that same weather pattern is going to continue.

This means the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) will benefit because the heat won't make it that far, plus the chances of the trough bringing episodes of showers are favorable.

"The dividing line will be near the Mississippi River where the troughs don't dip down to any extent to bring moisture," Leavitt said. "So there are no good prospects for beneficial showers in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and northern Iowa."

To make matters worse, 100-degree temperatures are likely this weekend for those areas not receiving any rain, he said.

Following this weekend, the heat will let up, but dryness will persist, giving way to more drought conversations, he said.

Before addressing whether a drought is going to prevail, Leavitt warned that a drought is rarely the absence of precipitation. Instead, more often it's the very persistent reduction of precipitation from normal levels.

"You could be having a drought when it's dry and not bone dry," Leavitt said. "Drought means it doesn't rain in a timely fashion, not no rain at all."

Even during the Kansas Dust Bowl era of the 1930's, the month of May had above average precipitation from 1930-1939, he said.

"The problem wasn't that it never rained, rather the rain was too little too late. When the rains finally came, the crop was dead on arrival," Leavitt said.

The weather models indicate that eastern Corn Belt farmers could have the best of both worlds.

"This year, there could be Illinois farmers that have a good crop in a year when there is a drought elsewhere in the Corn Belt," Leavitt said.

Leavitt added, "I don't see a drought for the entire Midwest. I see the eastern Corn Belt sailing right along."

A drought is expected to persist for the western Corn Belt, but Illinois and Indiana farmers can expect favorable crop weather for July, one meteorologist said on Monday.

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hurt crops in minnesota 07/20/2012 @ 7:14am went thru minn on I-94 wednesday and crops looked terrible from melrose to minneapolis....looked a little better from there to fargo,ND but they need a rain soon very soon or it will be as bad as indiana...........the previous post is absolutely correct that dead crops are dead and no amount of rain will bring them back....

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07/11/2012 @ 9:48am dead crops cant be revived

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