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Wild swings continue

Agriculture.com Staff 06/21/2007 @ 2:15pm

The grain markets have seen no let-up in volatility. Prices have been buffeted by dry weather and wet weather spells. Right now, the market is unnerved by wet weather in the forecast. The market is so sensitive because of high prices and the tight supply/demand situation. A decent sized corn crop is required.

To reduce the area of concern, this current rain event needs to move into the dry eastern Corn Belt area. Right now, it seems the rain has the potential to reduce the dry area, but not eliminate it. The weekly Drought Monitor, www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html , shows the dry areas in the east and southeast. Many have learned to check this web site every Thursday morning.

There is so much forecast data available on the internet now that market participants have almost constant access to a new forecast. With the increase in importance of electronic trading and the number of hours that trading is available, it is easy to see how forecasts can cause large swings in prices.

While the weather is the most important factor right now, the market is also waiting for next Friday's acreage and grain stocks reports. Corn and soybean acreage is key, as well as corn stocks. The market continues to need clues on corn feeding. The more information traders have, the better, in order to reduce the number of unknowns. Yield will still be critical--the corn crop heads into the important pollination period during July.

The wheat market is amazing, as prices are still above $6.00. Besides worries about crop size, there are concerns about disease, quality and poor harvest conditions. End users are not well-covered, so despite the high price, export sales are decent. Today's export sales report had wheat sales of 541,000 metric tons. Plus a sale of hard red spring wheat to unknown destinations was announced this morning. The US is one of the few sources of high quality wheat.

The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.

The grain markets have seen no let-up in volatility. Prices have been buffeted by dry weather and wet weather spells. Right now, the market is unnerved by wet weather in the forecast. The market is so sensitive because of high prices and the tight supply/demand situation. A decent sized corn crop is required.

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