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Early livestock commentary - Robin Fuller

Agriculture.com Staff 08/09/2011 @ 8:16am

Showlists are larger in Texas and smaller in Kansas and Nebraska. Asking prices start the week at $115.00 live in the south, and $1.00 over the August futures in Nebraska. There were 12 delivery notices posted last night. This should take some of the steam out of the futures market, which should put a damper on the cattle market as well. Most market sources look for cattle to trade no better than steady this week.

The choice cutout was up $1.61 at $174.25 last night, with the select up $0.10 at $169.77. Volume was good after reports of moderate to active sales at retail over the weekend. Good grilling weather over the northern half of the country after week's of stifling heat clearly trumped concern over the potential impact of the lowering of the nations credit rating. If the stock market continues to fall apart, attitudes could be different this coming weekend.

HOGS

Hog calls are steady to lower this morning. Numbers are picking up as the weather moderates. In much of the Midwest, highs will be in the upper 70's, a vast improvement from the 90 plus degrees seen during the past few weeks. Hogs are eating better and weights are beginning to improve. Most packers are done buying for this week and will be backing down bids for next week's hogs.

The pork cutout gained $1.32 last night, reaching another new record high of $110.19. Bellies were quoted 5 cents higher at $1.60. This likely is near the upper end of the rally since demand disappears at these prices. Hams were unquoted, but are said to be in good shape. Loins were unquoted; supplies remain tight and pricing is firm. Butts, on the other hand, continue to struggle, and were quoted 2 cents lower. We think the entire pork complex will find a top over the next 10 days.

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Written by Robin Fuller. For more information or trading ideas about this market, Please contact us at (312)896- 2001 or email us at sales@linngroup.com.

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