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Thomas Elwood: Early livestock comments

Agriculture.com Staff 10/13/2010 @ 8:32am

Correction from Tuesday: Cattle traded mostly $95.00 last week, not $96.00 as we printed. Asking prices this week range $97.00-$98.00 live in the south, and $98.00 live/$157 dressed in the north. There are scattered bids at $94.00. We still think there is a chance for some $96.00 trade this week if the beef improves.

The choice cutout was down $0.47 at $152.46 last night, with the select up $0.87 at $145.76. Volume was the best for a Tuesday in a month. Pricing was a mixed bag last night. About the only consistent trend was for rib cuts; both choice and select rib values worked higher. Select primals were generally firmer, while most choice primals saw continued discounting. Choice end cuts are looking for a bottom, but aren't there yet.

Cash hog market calls are mostly $0.50 lower this morning. There could be some steady bids, but there also could be some bids as much as $1.00 lower. Hog weights jumped 2 pounds in Iowa/S. Minn last week according to this morning's USDA report. That confirms the sharp jump in weights reported by packer buyers. We expect to see next week's report show another significant increase.

The pork cutout lost $0.50 last night. Heavy hams remain under pressure, with lighter weights unquoted. Bellies were steady to 5 cents lower. Loins saw more discounting last night as well, though butts moved back up over $1.00. Strong export demand and rising prices reportedly has moved domestic buyers to step in as well.

Last night's CME weekly storage report showed an in-movement of 1.189 mill lbs compared to an out- movement last year of 1.047 mill lbs. Stocks now total 1.191 lbs compared to 22.869 mill lbs last year. We expect to see continued in-movement over the next several weeks.

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