USDA today released the following long-term baseline projections. 
Note: USDA's baseline projections were compiled in November 2011, USDA 
officials said. As a result, the data may differ from more up-to-date 
crop production and trade data offered in USDA's upcoming Crop Production 
and World Agricultural Supply and Demand reports. 
 
Beef long-term projections 
============================================================================= 
       Item             Units        2010        2011        2012        2013 
============================================================================= 
 Beginning stocks      Mil. lbs.      565         585         515         520 
 Commercial production Mil. lbs.   26,304      26,277      24,960      23,463 
 Change from previous   Percent       1.3        -0.1        -5.0        -6.0 
 
 Farm production       Mil. lbs.      110         110         110         110 
 Total production      Mil. lbs.   26,414      26,387      25,070      23,573 
 Imports               Mil. lbs.    2,297       2,029       2,090       2,450 
   Total supply        Mil. lbs.   29,276      29,001      27,675      26,543 
 
 Exports               Mil. lbs.    2,299       2,765       2,775       2,700 
 
 Ending stocks         Mil. lbs.      585         515         520         520 
 
 Total consumption     Mil. lbs.   26,392      25,721      24,380      23,323 
   Per capita, 
   Carcass weight        Pounds      85.1        82.2        77.2        73.2 
   Per capita, retail    Pounds      59.6        57.5        54.1        51.3 
     Change from prev   Percent      -2.5        -3.4        -6.0        -5.2 
 
Prices: 
 
 Beef cattle, farm       $/cwt      91.97      111.70      119.35      119.68 
 Calves, farm            $/cwt     120.75      141.19      151.63      164.71 
 Steers, 5-area          $/cwt      95.38      113.98      121.75      122.09 
 Yearling steers, 
  Oklahoma City          $/cwt     109.31      132.28      142.00      154.25 
 
Costs and returns, cow-calf enterprise: 
 
 Total cash expenses     $/cow     474.19      517.29      582.34      542.24 
 Returns above cash cost $/cow      96.11      182.78      178.92      286.72 
 
Cattle inventory     1,000 head    93,881      92,582      91,000      90,400 
Beef cow inventory   1,000 head    31,371      30,865      30,235      30,350 
Total cow inventory  1,000 head    40,456      40,014      39,450      39,400 
 
 
============================================================================= 
 
       Item             Units        2014        2015        2016        2017 
============================================================================= 
 Beginning stocks      Mil. lbs.      520         520         520         520 
 Commercial production Mil. lbs.   23,478      24,854      25,936      26,940 
 Change from previous   Percent       0.1         5.9         4.4         3.9 
 
 Farm production       Mil. lbs.      110         110         110         110 
 Total production      Mil. lbs.   23,588      24,964      26,046      27,050 
 Imports               Mil. lbs.    2,850       2,966       3,009       3,064 
   Total supply        Mil. lbs.   26,958      28,450      29,575      30,634 
 
 Exports               Mil. lbs.    2,725       2,783       2,851       2,913 
 
 Ending stocks         Mil. lbs.      520         520         520         520 
 
 Total consumption     Mil. lbs.   23,713      25,147      26,204      27,201 
   Per capita, 
   Carcass weight        Pounds      73.8        77.7        80.3        82.6 
   Per capita, retail    Pounds      51.7        54.4        56.2        57.8 
   Change from previous  Percent       0.8         5.2         3.3         3.0 
 
Prices: 
 
 Beef cattle, farm       $/cwt     118.92      111.51      109.79      109.07 
 Calves, farm            $/cwt     154.46      141.32      135.64      142.62 
 Steers, 5-area          $/cwt     121.31      113.76      112.00      111.27 
 Yearling steers, 
  Oklahoma City          $/cwt     144.65      132.34      127.03      133.56 
 
Costs and returns, cow-calf enterprise: 
 
Total cash expenses      $/cow     538.85      550.35      563.93      574.89 
Returns above cash costs $/cow     253.26      185.01      152.46      186.48 
 
Cattle inventory     1,000 head    92,079      94,038      94,802      95,357 
Beef cow inventory   1,000 head    31,106      32,417      33,012      33,427 
Total cow inventory  1,000 head    40,126      41,413      41,977      42,367 
 
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires