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Bearish weather

Agriculture.com Staff 07/14/2008 @ 6:47am

Historical Price Trends: best odds for the week of July 14, according to our HPT page is for CBOT Sept soybean meal and corn futures. Over the most recent ten years, odds of 70% for lower Sept soybean meal and Sept corn futures than where they closed on Friday of the previous week. On average Sept soybean meal 70% of the time has closed $7.20 per ton lower. Over the most recent ten years, odds of 70% for lower September corn futures than where they closed on Friday of the previous week by an average amount of 13 cents.

For The Week: for the week of July 7th, September corn futures value decreased 8.8%, September soybean futures value decreased 2% and Sept CBOT SRWW value decreased by 6.6%.

For The Month: thus far for the month of July, Sept corn futures value down 6.4%, September soybean futures value increased 1.3% and September CBOT SRWW value decreased by 3.5%.

Technicals: For the short term trader, Allendale uses its own unique custom Moving Averages to monitor price momentum, define key support and resistance levels as well as advise where key pivot points are located when bulls may turn bearish and bears to turn bulls. We also include last weeks closing price for the weekly chartist as we draw closer to the end of the week to anticipate the possibility for futures to have a positive weekly close or if weakness is ensuing. A detailed technical look at the grains and livestock are available within our Allendale Advanced Charts.

Conclusion: the #1 Moving average in corn is likely to be used as the point for technical traders to sell against and risk to slightly above the #2 Moving average. Wheat rest precariously above immediate support of the #1 Moving average but has staunch resistance between the #2 Moving average and the Pivot point. If neutral either stop into a long above the #2 MA and pivot point or stop into a short on a breech of the #1 Moving Average.

Corn USDA WASDE Highlights: Allendale suggest the biggest surprise held within Friday's USDA report was the higher than expected build in old crop stocks. Not surprising was the decrease but the amount decreased in corn use for ethanol both old crop and new crop. USDA did slash corn use for both by an equal amount of 50 million bushels. USDA rational is slower than expected start up on planned plants and reduced capacity utilization on existing plants. The reduced capacity utilization is evident within our Special Reports section "Ethanol Production" graphic which details the persistent month on month shortfall in USDA's target.

Domestic Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2007/08 presently estimated at 1.598 bil bu vs June's 1.433 billion bushels vs 2006's 1.304 billion. For 2008/09 end stocks are projected at 833 million bushels vs June's USDA estimate of 673 million bu. 2007/08 Stocks to use for July's estimate is 12.5% vs 11.1% last month vs 2006's 11.6% and 2005's 17.5%. USDA's 2008/09 estimate for end stocks to use is 6.7% vs June's estimated 5.4% with 1995 the lowest at 5% dating back to 1980.

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