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Bullish corn enthusiasm continues

Agriculture.com Staff 02/12/2016 @ 1:47am

The corn rally continued again this week and volatility increased as well. It almost feels like a summer market!

For the speculative funds, it's an end of the month and end of the quarter buying spree. The fundamentals of the corn market have not really changed in the past week. Harvest continues to be slower than average, with wet weather and slow dry down limiting combining. Demand has been about as expected. For example, corn exports this morning were 829,700 metric tons, right in the middle of the pre-report estimates.

The corn market has been influenced by trends in the wheat market, which also feels like it is summer. It's not drought in the U.S., but drought in Australia which has rallied wheat prices. The latest wheat crop estimate, from the Australian Wheat Board, was 12-15 million metric tons this morning. That's lower than the Australian government's estimate of 16.5 mmt.

There will be a little additional excitement for the market on Friday, as the USDA releases final U.S. wheat production numbers, as well as stocks figures. For corn and soybeans, the numbers will be the final 2005-2006 carryout number.

The pre-report estimates for all-wheat classes average is 1.794 billion bushels. For wheat stocks, the average estimate is 1.711 billion, corn stocks 1.971 billion, and soybean stocks 0.481 million.

The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.

The corn rally continued again this week and volatility increased as well. It almost feels like a summer market!

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