Corn planting delays
Days Supply: as USDA has released its first official 2008/09 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Outlook on Friday, the report confirmed our estimates from our January 19th annual outlook conference with regards to the days supplies of wheat, corn and rice after use is taken from supply. The days supplies of wheat and rice are projected to increase with corn now on a four year slide downward. You can view the chart within our "Of Interest" page. The days of these world starches find an increase from 2007/08 to 2008/09 of 64 to 70 for wheat, 67 to 71 for rice and decrease in corn from 51 to 46. The 46 day supply is the smallest # of days, dating back to 1999/2000 which then registered 104 days. More specifically the days of corn is a great deal more thin at only 22 days. Dating back to 1999/2000 US corn supplies have never been less than a month. 2003-04 at least had 34 days and was the tightest before Friday's USDA projections were unveiled. 2007/08 days supply of corn is 39 days suggesting the # of days of supply may experience a reduction of 17 days which is slightly less than the 18 day drop from 2001-02 to 2002-03. End users are advised to have a greater percentage of annual needs covered given this latest data.
Planting Pace: not since 1993 (the Great Midwest Flood) have corn planting delays have anticipated May 11th 2008 been as far behind. Allendale suggest corn planting progress to be 49% complete by May 11th vs a five year average of 77%. This 28% lag in plantings suggest yield may have declined by 12.8% from a trend of 155.28 bu per acre to a level of 135.3 bu per acre yield. Dating back to 1990, every year which was behind its five year average by May 11th had less yield than what its trend should have been, most recently 2007, 2003 and 2002. It appears 2008 is likely to be added to this list of under performing yields.
Corn USDA WASDE Highlights: Allendale suggest the biggest surprise was to have world stocks of corn for 2008/09 to be sub 100 MMT at its projected level of 99 million metric tonnes. Compared to final end stocks it represents the second lowest level dating back to 1980 when in 1983 world end stocks of corn were 89 million tonnes. No other year dating back to 1980 had less than 100 MMT of corn stocks, placing 2008 in extremely unique company.
Fundamentals: Planting delays are first and foremost on the trades mind and supportive to futures. Domestic Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2007/08 presently estimated at 1.383 bil bu vs April's 1.238 billion bushels vs 2006's 1.304 billion and 1st projection for 2008/09 of 763 million bu. 2007/08 Stocks to use of 10.6% vs 9.8% last month vs last years 11.6% and 2005's 17.5%. USDA's 1st 2008/09 estimate for end stocks to use is 6% with 1995 the lowest at 5%.
World Stocks and Stocks to Use: 2007/08 world stocks of 110 million tonnes vs last months 103 million tonnes vs last years 108 million tonnes. USDA 1st official projection at 99 million tonnes for 2008/09 is the second lowest dating back to 1980 with 1983 at 89 million tonnes. 2007/08 End stocks to use at 12.5% vs 11.8% last month vs USDA's 2008/09 projection of 11.2% a record low dating back to 1980.