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Lower market to elevate corn demand

Agriculture.com Staff 07/02/2007 @ 10:02am

From the Day Before to the Day of: What happens to Dec corn futures prices from the close of business the day before the USDA June Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks report to the close of business the day of the reports release; for Dec corn the ten year ave has been for a 1.5 cent lower close. 60% of the time futures have closed an ave of 6.3 cents lower with a max of 10.5 cents and minimum of 1 cent. 40% of the time when futures close higher it is by an ave of 4.1 cents with a max of 5.25 cents and a minimum of 1.5 cents.

Soybeans for Nov soybeans the ten year ave has been for a 3.5 cent lower close. 50% of the time futures have closed an ave of 20.9 cents lower with a max of 30.75 cents and minimum of 5.75 cents. 50% of the time when futures close higher it is by an ave of 13.8 cents with a max of 23 cents and a minimum of 4.5 cents.

Wheat for Dec wheat the ten year ave has been for a 2.7 cent lower close. 50% of the time futures have closed an ave of 9.8 cents lower with a max of 21.75 cents and minimum of 3 cents. 50% of the time when futures close higher it is by an ave of 4.3 cents with a max of 7 cents and a minimum of .25 cent.

From the Day of the reports to One Week after. what happens to Dec corn futures prices from the close of business the day of the USDA June Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks report to the close of business one week later; for Dec corn the ten year ave has been for a 3.1 cent lower close. 60% of the time futures have closed an ave of 11.8 cents lower with a max of 20.5 cents and minimum of 1.5 cents. 40% of the time when futures close higher it is by an ave of 9.9 cents with a max of 16 cents and a minimum of 2 cents.

Soybeans for Nov soybeans the ten year ave has been for a 7.7 cent lower close. 50% of the time futures have closed an ave of 36.3 cents lower with a max of 63.25 cents and minimum of 21.25 cents. 50% of the time when futures close higher it is by an ave of 20.9 cents with a max of 37 cents and a minimum of 8 cents.

Wheat for Dec wheat the ten year ave has been for a 2.3 cent lower close. 50% of the time futures have closed an ave of 17.6 cents lower with a max of 30.25 cents and minimum of 13 cents. 50% of the time when futures close higher it is by an ave of 4.3 cents with a max of 7.8 cents and a minimum of 3 cents.

Interesting to Note: In two of the most significant Dec corn rally years of 1996 and 2006, one week after the end of June USDA reports, Dec corn futures did close higher in both years. In 1996, Dec corn futures closed 1 cent higher and in 2006 futures closed 11.5 cents higher. Given the recent correction to Dec corn futures 2007, and tightness in world end stocks to use, odds could favor Dec corn futures closing higher on July 6th.

Corn Fundamentals: USDA released its Planted Acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports Friday which help produce the important stepping stone as we prepare to enter the next critical phase of pollination for 2007 corn production. NASS released its distillers grains report and has little if anything to offer in the way of how much DDG is replacing corn for feed. The NASS report features a breakdown as to what species is using DDG, where users are purchasing the product and preferred nutrient analysis. The trade is likely to focus on weather for the next three weeks and as of this writing the one and two week forecast non threatening weather which could continue to place pressure on price. The positive for corn is with the technical corrective dip in price, end users have an opportunity to secure late summer and fall needs allowing for improved profit margins.

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