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Ron and Sue Mortenesen: Markets and rolling combines

Agriculture.com Staff 09/25/2008 @ 2:03pm

At the beginning of harvest, corn and soybean prices are off their lows, but they have paused before going over any really significant resistance-the major moving averages, the August highs, etc.

The slightly more positive attitude in the financial markets has allowed corn and soybean prices to mark time before the heart of harvest starts. One fundamental question on everyone's mind is "how much hedge pressure will there be?" Commercial hedge selling volumes will give an idea of overall crop sizes.

The amount of harvest sales by farmers will also help indicate whether or not farmers believe current prices are high enough or whether they will store the crop in hopes of better prices ahead. Disappointing yields, increased amounts of farmer-owned storage and a substantial amount of forward selling could mean relatively little harvest pressure.

Fundamental news next week includes the Grain Stocks report which will be issued on Tuesday morning. This will show the final carryout numbers for old-crop corn and beans. There will also be a final wheat crop number. The wheat grain stocks will help determine feed use in the first quarter of the wheat crop year.

Finally, the Chinese seem to be back buying soybeans. There have been two large sales announced by the USDA's daily reporting system and today's export sales report also contained sales to China. Actually, the sales for soybeans and corn were both in the upper end of the trade estimates this morning.

The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.

At the beginning of harvest, corn and soybean prices are off their lows, but they have paused before going over any really significant resistance-the major moving averages, the August highs, etc.

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