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The March reports

With the turn of the calendar to March, the markets have also turned their attention more and more to the new crop corn/bean situation. The reports this month should add to this attention shift.

The market will first deal with old crop numbers in next Wednesday's crop production and supply/demand report. The market is nervous about a potential reduction in the corn crop size, although there are analysts expecting little change. The USDA will be resurveying growers in states with unharvested acreage, although the Dakotas and Iowa will not be included.

For soybeans, the obvious change will be to once again increase exports. The USDA has not been ahead of the curve on this demand feature! Even with the blazing pace of exports to China slowing, total soybean exports need to be raised.

At the end of the month, the grain stocks report will provide insight into usage for the first six months which is typically the heavy half of the year. Grain stocks give valuable clues to feed use and residual (the USDA's statistical error factor). Plus corn for feed is the largest category of use.

As market participants become more and more comfortable with the old crop situation, their attention will turn to new crop. Warmer weather, the melting/flooding situation and the acreage in the Prospective Plantings report will be key factors. Remember the corn market wants and needs more acres, so corn prices may stay firm until the acreage numbers are known.

The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.

With the turn of the calendar to March, the markets have also turned their attention more and more to the new crop corn/bean situation. The reports this month should add to this attention shift.

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