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The trade is bullish corn
Historical Price Trends: best odds for the week of April 7 is for CBOT May Soybean Meal. Over the most recent ten years,
odds of 80% for higher CBOT wheat futures than where they closed on Friday
of the present week.
For The Week: for the week, May corn futures value increased 6.7%, May
soybean futures value increased .07% and July CBOT SRWW value decreased by
Technicals: For the short term trader, Allendale uses its own unique custom
Moving Averages to monitor price momentum, define key support and
resistance levels as well as advise where key pivot points are located when
bulls may turn bearish and bears to turn bulls. We also include last weeks
closing price for the weekly chartist as we draw closer to the end of the
week to anticipate the possibility for futures to have a positive weekly
close or if weakness is ensuing.
Observation: May and July Soybeans as well as July wheat at the KCBT and
CBOT precariously close to breeching the #2 Moving Average. If Neutral,
consider stopping into a short position with an objective of the #1 Moving
Projected Ending Stocks: for the 2007/08 marketing year, are found within
our Midsession comments. Stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat are
constricting. For soybeans the combination of stronger than average exports
and pace of soybean crush are the main reasons for the smaller estimate
than the previous month. The export pace for corn and wheat is also
stronger than average as a result of a weak US dollar and lack of world
Corn Fundamentals: the trade is bullish to corn on ideas of planting delays
of potentially smaller 2008 corn acres. See planting progress data below.
Commercials strong buyers of futures on Wed and Thurs. This could be
interpreted as foreign demand for US corn. Weather experts at a conference
on Thursday suggest La Nina is weakening and may be suggest a mild summer
for the greater Midwest. Plenty of wet weather forecasted for much of next
week may be viewed as supportive to futures. If the 3 to 5 day forecast
should happen to turn warm and dry for the Midwest, look for a portion of
weather premium to be removed from the futures market. Look for corn
exports to begin from Brazil. Argentina's corn harvest is making better
than average progress with healthy yields.
Old Crop Marketing: 5650 cash corn requires 4.3 cents per bu per month to
store on farm. The present spread between May and July futures is offering
6.3 cents per bu per month. Make certain unhedged corn meets the criteria.
Allendale has its old crop corn hedged in the May futures.
Cash Peak: Dating back to 2000, odds favor a national cash corn peak for
the months of April and May.
Exports: corn exports account for 19% of the total 2007/08 use. with 22
weeks remaining in the marketing year, cumulative sales of 2.107 billion
bushels to all nations are 26% higher than year earlier levels and 38%
higher than the five year average. Based on the past 4 weeks ave weekly
sales the US is on pace to sell 2.512 bil bu vs USDA target of 2.45 bil bu.
Shipments of 1.482 billion bushels are 15% higher than year earlier levels
and 60% below the five year average.
Planting Progress: the trade attention is expected to shift from acreage
potential to planting progress. USDA is not expected to release its first
2008 planting progress until April 7th. The five year ave for the period of
time is 3% complete, 39% by the 17th week of the calendar year or near
April 28th and 80% complete by May 12th. Any delay in corn plantings is
expected to be bullish corn, bearish soybean futures.
New Crop Marketing: The total amount hedged as a percent of anticipated
2008 production is 25%. 5800 vs the Dec 2008 is key support, 5684 a trader
momentum shift point. The immediate technical trend is bullish. We will
monitor and alert when to resume hedges.
Trade Posture: Long term Allendale remains bullish to old and new crop
given our outlook for reduced corn plantings in the spring of 2008 and
stronger than average quarterly corn use. A signal suggesting a turn higher
for the US dollar may be a preliminary signal to be a seller of old crop.
We remain long July corn futures.
Observation: healthy weekly export. Wheat sales were more than four times
the amount needed on a per week basis in order to reach USDA's objective,
soybeans five times and corn nearly twice.
Soybean Fundamentals: the Argentina farmer strike has been suspended for a
period of 30 days. Just as it ends, stevedores begin its strike at Brazil's
Paranaugua port facility. Vessels arriving at Argentina to load pre
purchased soybeans are told to redirect empty to Brazil to load. US Gulf
basis levels improved this week based on S American strikes. China buys 4
to 5 cargos of US beans as a result of the Argentina strike. The gray cloud
hanging over the US soybean futures are two fold. #1 the Brazil strike is
expected to end quickly and wet weather delays for corn planting is
perceived as adding more acres to soybeans, especially as the soybean to
corn ratio was repaired on Wednesday through Friday after it was hammered
on Monday and Tuesday after USDA released its annual "Prospective Planting"
Old Crop Marketing: Allendale has 35% of its 2007 inventory hedged in the
May futures after rolling out of March futures on 2/13/08 at a value
greater than full carry. $11.97 cash soybeans require 7.4 cents of carry
per month. If not hedged, make certain your local cash markets are offering
you sufficient carry. Contact an Allendale representative for alternative
marketing strategies for your specific operation. The present May/July
futures spread is 17 cents or 8.5 cents/bu/mth.
Exports: soybean exports account for 34% of the total 2007/08 use. with 22
weeks remaining in the marketing year, cumulative sales of 996 million
bushels to all nations are even with year earlier levels and 6% higher than
the five year average. Based on the past 4 weeks ave weekly sales the US is
on pace to sell 1.118 bil bu vs USDA target of 1.025 bil bu. Shipments of
835 million bushels are 3% lower than year earlier levels and 14% above the
five year average.
Meal and Oil: with 50% of the marketing year remaining, Cumulative export
sales of soybean meal have met 69% of its marketing year target, 8% below
yr ago levels and 7% below its five year average. Cumulative export sales
of soybean oil have reached 81% of its target vs 59% year on year and are
7% stronger than its five year average.
Cash Peak: Dating back to 2000, odds favor a national cash soybean peak for
the months of August, December and April. Allendale resumed cash sales on
the 2007 inventory on Friday. Instructions within our "Hedge Advice" page
suggested market on open Friday morning to move 50% of the remaining 70% of
inventory to the cash market. Our decision based on timing as well as
New Crop Marketing: We will hold hedges of new crop at 40% of anticipated
2008 production and alert when to resume. A move to 12500 may warrant
additional hedging. We plan on using the break to cover present hedges with
call options at a chart consolidation point to be identified.
Planting Progress: USDA is not expected to release its first 2008 soybean
planting progress until April 28th. The five year ave for the period of
time is 6% complete, 52% by the 20th week of the calendar year or near May
20th and 84% complete by June 2nd. Any delay in soybean plantings is
expected to be bullish for its futures.
Trade Posture: short term technicals are bullish to soybean futures. The
strike in Brazil is expected to end soon and weather related issues in the
Midwest are viewed fundamentally bearish. We are short old crop soybean
futures, and have written orders to sell soybean meal against technical
Wheat Fundamentals: strong demand for US wheat midweek is supportive with
eight weeks remaining in the marketing year. Dry weather concerns remain a
feature topic of discussion for the western regions of the southern and
northern Plains. Good to excellent quality ratings remain below average for
KS, OK and TX. Drought is a concern in northern China, Spain and west
New Crop: Resistance is 10100, support of 9320 vs July CBOT soft red winter
wheat. We see no reason to hedge new crop above the 65% level we have on
for now. Fundamentals remain supportive. 8790 could be a bull to bear
momentum price shift point.
Exports: wheat exports account for 59% of the total 2007/08 use. With 8
weeks remaining in the marketing year, cumulative wheat sales of 1.209
billion bushels to all nations are 48% higher than year earlier levels and
32% higher than the five year average. Based on the past 4 weeks ave weekly
sales the US is on pace to sell 1.280 bil bu vs USDA target of 1.225 bil
bu. Shipments of 1.018 billion bushels are 52% higher than year earlier
levels and 84% above the five year average.
Trade Posture: Long term Allendale remains supportive to new crop wheat
futures based on how weak 2008 winter wheat conditions went into dormancy
and present tight old crop stocks. The majority of the northern hemisphere
wheat crops are doing well wit the exception of dryness in north central
China as well as west Algeria and Morocco's durum wheat production
Lean Hogs: In the last two days futures have posted an impressive rebound.
April was up $2.92, May was up $5.72, and December ended up $5.35. Now, is
this from actual fundamentals or an outside factor? On the fundamental end
we can actually say yes, there are gains in wholesale pork prices.
Wednesday night it was up $2.29, yesterday it gained $1.21, and today it
ended 82 cents higher. For reasons why the trade is wanted to attribute it
to new export sales to either Russia or China. That could be the case but
keep in mind packers are unlikely to make announcements of large one-time
sales this time around. For outside factors floor sources suggest the move
has been from shorts getting out. A second outside factor may be from UBS
Warburg. This large financial firm releases eight exchange traded noted
tied to their commodity index. There is a broad commodity index offering as
well as separate focused products. One of those products is a livestock
index. Are we seeing some outside money flow in? We can speculate on the
reasons for the recent rally all we want. However, the point is
clear...prices went higher this week. Has anything changed fundamentally?
The answer to that question is no. Cash hog and cash pork markets have
posted their seasonal early spring low and are set to rally into summer.
This happens every year. Futures already have this factored in. Many contracts are back above their respective
2007 prices. We noted earlier this week that the last few weeks of lower
futures was a valid move and got many of them near their true value. This
week we also put orders in to start taking off hedges if prices began to
hit a discount to their true value. We will let this market run all it
wants to on the upside in the next few days. If it gets too far out of hand
we will sell the remaining 25% we have left on the hedge side. The main
message is keep calm here and stick with your plan. In other news in the
last two days there has been widespread speculation that one well-known
family owned corporate style hog producer in the US had filed bankruptcy.
That rumor can be discounted. It may have been tied to talk over
liquidation of 2,800 pregnant sows at one of its units. The liquidation was
attributed to a serious PRRS problem and not from financial difficulties.
Live Cattle: Where the hog side has some fundamental backing (higher
wholesale pork prices) for their recent futures run the cattle just simply
do not. Everything on the beef end is still pretty rough around the edges.
This week we learned an estimated 80,000 jobs were lost in March. Wholesale
beef has been mixed to lower this week. Choice was down $1.13 and select
declined by $1.43. Cash cattle prices were $2 lower in this week's sales.
Kill rates have been a moderate 1% to 2% higher in recent weeks. This
week's kill was up 4%. Numbers, on a percentage basis, will push a little
higher in April then run 4% to 6% higher in May and June. So not only will
numbers build, as they always do from winter to summer but they will be
even larger than normal right at the peak of supplies in June.
point here is fundamentals are weak now and will likely get worse into
early summer. We are staying with an $82 to $85 downside target for the
June. We will hold our 100% hedged position on the June and August
contract. After summer we do remain very positive. For trading we feel
those short June $94 and $95 calls, we recommended earlier, will likely
expire worthless which would be good for that position. Also, speculative
traders may be interested in bear spreading (selling June and buying
October or December).
Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA.
The bottom line is we are a regulated firm which can be extremely important.
Historical Price Trends: best odds for the week of April 7 is for CBOT May Soybean Meal. Over the most recent ten years, odds of 80% for higher CBOT wheat futures than where they closed on Friday of the present week.